| Constituency | Seats | Result of 2002 election | kingkane's Prediction | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlow Kilkenny | 5 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 Green: 1 I think that the two Labour candidates are too weak and transfers won't be tight enough to get them the seat especially when geography comes into play. | ||
| Cavan Monaghan | 4 |
| FF: 1 FG: 2 SF: 1 Connolly has been a failure on the hospital and Conlon was selected much too late. | ||
| Clare | 4 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 FG will deny the various FF's the chance to move outside their areas and gain votes. Indo Breen to be squeezed as people want a government. | ||
| Cork East | 4 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 It seems to be forgotten that Sherlock Snr. used to struggle at one for a his seat. Also SF will eat into that vote a bit. So FG to gain in the end. | ||
| Cork North Central | 4 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 The entry of McCarthy has opened this open .FG should actually sneak it now but more likely it will stay the same | ||
| Cork North West | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 2 I think the vote management for FF is going to be truly terrible and that will cost them the seat. | ||
| Cork South Central | 5 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 Green: 1 Martin won't have the surplus to save Dennehy this time. | ||
| Cork South West | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 2 FF are content to lose this one as they know O'Donovan could be the sole TD going for reelection in 2012 | ||
| Donegal North East | 3 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 Blaney to lose out and I'm coming round to the idea that SF might gain here too. | ||
| Donegal South West | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 SF: 1 The Cope to lose out. | ||
| Dublin Central | 4 |
| FF: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1 Others: 1 FF have made a right mess of this. If they had run just Mary Fitz , they would have held it. | ||
| Dublin Mid West | 4 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1 I've changed my mind and now think that Harney's absent landlord bit is going to tell for her in the end. | ||
| Dublin North | 4 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 SP: 1 Green: 1 I now think that Daly will take it. Labour should have found someone younger and earlier to replace Ryan. | ||
| Dublin North Central | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Green: 1 | ||
| Dublin North East | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 | ||
| Dublin North West | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 SF: 1 I think that SF will eat into Labour enough that Tormey could get ahead of Shortall. | ||
| Dublin South | 5 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 Green: 1 Sorry, Liz too inactive and lassiez faire about the whole thing | ||
| Dublin South Central | 5 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 2 SF: 1 | ||
| Dublin South East | 4 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1 | ||
| Dublin South West | 4 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 SF: 1 Lenihan to lose out. | ||
| Dublin West | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Others: 1 | ||
| Dun Laoghaire | 5 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1 On a really bad day for FF, Andrews could be at risk. But should just hold on. | ||
| Galway East | 4 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 | ||
| Galway West | 5 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1 | ||
| Kerry North | 3 |
| FG: 1 Lab: 1 SF: 1 | ||
| Kerry South | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 | ||
| Kildare North | 4 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Others: 1 | ||
| Kildare South | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 | ||
| Laois Offaly | 5 |
| FF: 3 FG: 2 No more Parlon country | ||
| Limerick East | 5 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 Lab: 1 | ||
| Limerick West | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 2 Brennan and Nix to swing it for FG. | ||
| Longford Westmeath | 4 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 | ||
| Louth | 4 |
| FF: 1 FG: 2 SF: 1 | ||
| Mayo | 5 |
| FF: 1 FG: 3 Others: 1 Cowley will hang on due to transfers from SF, Lab and Greens. That gets him ahead of Bev. | ||
| Meath East | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 | ||
| Meath West | 3 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 | ||
| Roscommon Leitrim South | 3 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 | ||
| Sligo Leitrim North | 3 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 | ||
| Tipperay North | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Others: 1 | ||
| Tipperay South | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Others: 1 | ||
| Waterford | 4 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 | ||
| Wexford | 5 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 Lab: 1 | ||
| Wicklow | 5 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 2 Green: 1 |
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Thursday, May 24, 2007
Election predictions - the whole shebang
I did the old election prediction thing a while back and I think I'm going to revise it here.
I get FF 61 and FG 57, and am too lazy to count the others.
ReplyDeleteThats on the optimistic opposition side for both figures.