On the passing of Charles Haughey

This last week the Northside has lost one of her most noted sons, and while I would be of a very different political persuasion, I recognise the depth of genuine human emotion that many people feel at this time. As it is well known he said of himself

"I have done the state some service and they know't. No more of that."

but the piece goes on to say ask us

"I pray you, in your letters,

When you shall these unlucky deeds relate,

Speak of me as I am; nothing extenuate,

Nor set down aught in malice: then must you speak

Of one that loved not wisely but too well;"


At such times, we should not be quick to parcel up a life into mere pluses and minuses like some bookkeeper adding sums to see if the credit and debit balance out, but rather should look at a life as a whole thing. We should speak of him as he was, splendidly right at times, the building of the IFSC, free travel, and horrendously wrong others, opposition to the Anglo-Irish agreement, failure to tackle the national finances, being dependent on the largesse of others. The state too has done him some service too, and he know’t, No more of that. The greatest justice we, as Gaels, can ask for any life is for people to tell the whole tale, to leave nothing out and let the future draw its judgement where it may.

Ar dheis De go raibh a anam dilis!

Letter to the Editor - June 2nd 2006

Madam, - The case which has lead to the voiding of a section of law intended to protect children from sexual predators is another example of a failure to plan or anticipate outcomes.

Surely the Attorney General's office and the Department of Justice was aware that this case was coming before the Supreme Court. And it should have occurred to someone at some level that the court might rule in favour of the plaintiff. And it would be expected that some thought would have gone into how to address that outcome and its possible effects.

The simple issue of competence at the heart of this is that (a) people should have been aware an event was about to occur; (b) they had to have some idea of possible outcomes; and (c) they should have prepared some measures to deal with those outcomes should they arise. Call it anticipation or planning - I believe the term used in politics is "being on top of your brief".

The basic fact remains that the system has failed because of a lack of due attention by those in high office to what was going on around them. If not one single person of significance loses their job over this, then we are being told as bluntly as you like that no matter what happens, no matter how big the screw-up, no matter how dire the consequences, no one in this Government will ever take responsibility for anything that goes wrong. - Yours, etc,

DANIEL K. SULLIVAN, Beaumont, Dublin 9.

Something must be done!

I'm trying to compile a list of the various statements that ministers come out with that give the impression that something will be done about a specific issue but which in fact contains no commitment to act on the issue itself. Feel free to add to it.



1) We are identifying the problem

2) We are examining the problem

3) We have commissioned a report

4) We have received a report

5) We will be releasing the findings in due course.

6)We're awaiting the translation of the report

7) We are examining the findings of the report

8) We are reviewing the actions necessary in the light of the report.

MRBI Poll - the hidden problems.

I think the recent MRBI poll (published May 19th) boils down to the following, taken on the day itself of those prepared to give an opinion less than 1 in 3 of voterswill support FF and over 1 in 4 people will support FG. If after the long summer of world cup football, beautiful weather and fine women FF are still under 35% and FG are still over 25% then the whole thing is completely wide open from then on until polling day.

If FF did get over 35% in the September poll then I would expect them to give into the temptation and go to the country with a budget based election, it would represent their last chance to get enough support to have the seats to do a deal with Labour. We all know that FF +PDs isn't going to happen.

The PDs maxed out the last time and their only objective this time is to keep their losses at such a level that they don't become completely defunct. I would say that for this to happen they will need a minimum of 4 seats and at least 2 of Harney, McDowell and O'Donnell. For if it was Grealish, O'Malley (Limerick East), Sexton and A.N. Other from Dublin that survived then they would be finished as a party. They can possibly limp on after the loss of one from Harney, McDowell and O'Donnell but not the loss of two.

If FF are under 35% then they will wait it out and go for late Feb, hoping that the actuality of any budget freebies and the usual post Christmas bounce might carry them through. They can’t leave it until May as their support has consistently dropped as the year progresses. And they leave themselves totally at the mercy of events. And let's remember that we are all being told Bertie's isn't a gambler, isn't it a gamble wait for something to happen that might help them than to strike when the picture looks even just plausibly good.

It should be noted that I’ve had 3 / 4 separate reports in the last 2 months about printers here and outside the jurisdiction being put on a retainer for September and October by FF. They are committed to keeping the option open for a quick run as the light gets dark.

Fact is that FF doesn’t have the membership/manpower anymore to completely dominate the canvassing side of things like they once did. Will they have more than any single party on the ground, probably. Though FG would push them closer than they have for many years. Now for FF as a government party the battle must be on the TV and the airwaves, they will have money to burn and they know that ending up in opposition with SF would mean the probable loss of even more seats next time out to SF, irrespective of any gains they might hope to make back from FG, Labour, Greens and the defunct PDs if they bounced back. They simply can’t beat SF in an auction election. Truth is no one can beat SF in an auction because SF will happily promise you the farm because they know they won't do a deal after the election and so won't be called on to deliver.

With all else that happened in recent years the biggest campaigning problem for FF is that their public representatives who are seeking reelection don’t want to be encountering the members of the public who are annoyed about one thing and another. Sadly for them, the Fianna Fail party didn’t take the opportunity to completely lance the boil of public discontent back in 2004 but rather their TDs and most especially ministers avoided engaging the public and left the local election candidates to fend for themselves for the most part. And boy are those local reps sore about it.

The local FF candidates took the heat and bore the losses but it didn’t satisfy the public. I wonder for the local FF councillors how many will kill themselves to get some of the no show FF TDs and ministers back into power? After all, many of the younger ones who did survive ’04 may reckon this is their best means to get a run out the next time themselves. Let the public knock off the sitting TD and there is an opening in the next election, re-elected them and those young people who take the hit in '04 are locked out for another couple of cycles. One thing FF people are is ambitious.

Take a local example, if Deirdre Heney doesn’t run in DNE do you think she will burn as much shoe leather for Haughey or Callely in DNC as she did for herself in '02? Or if she does run in DNE will the local FF councillors there bother to help her and deprive themselves of any chance of run for a generation? Hardly.

The dangers of the 1 in 3 question for FF TDs

Ireland once had what was termed a 2 and 1/2 party system. It might be now said to have a 2 and 7/8s party system.

The Irish electoral system has by in large been kinder to the larger parties in terms of seat bonuses when comparing to the smaller parties.. Both FF and FG have benefited from this since independence. However, FF have been by far the greater beneficiary in the last two general elections. In the ‘02 General election they got somewhat less that 42% and got 49% of the seats available. One of the many contributory factors, though not the only one is the number of 3 seat constituencies in areas where FF are strongest.

However, this very preponderance of 3 seat constituencies in which FF hold 2 of the 3 seats becomes a major issue for that party when their national support drops below the figure of 1 in 3.

The Irish electoral system of Proportional Representation (PR) by means of the Single Transfer Vote (STV) actually will guarantee you 2 seats out of 3 for 50% +2 votes of the total valid poll if you run just 2 candidates and if it is evenly shared between those two candidates. This amounts to a vote of a slight bit more than 50% getting you all of 66% of the seats in those 3 seats constituencies. This is a whopping 15% bonus. Not bad at all for a supposedly proportionate voting system. Indeed, in practical terms getting 40% will usually mean you get 2 seats in such 3 seat constituencies if it has been reasonably competitive, say if the smaller parties such as the PDs, Greens, and SF have contested along with an independent or non-party candidate. In order to ensure that the % figures remains on the right side of 40% FF will often run sweeper or some might say spoiler candidates who are designed not alone to ensure that their total amounts to over 40% but that the remaining vote can't coalesce sufficiently around two of the remaining candidates. This increases the chances of a result of 2 from 3 even if one of those two is elected without reaching the quota.

However, as the total % available to the 2 main FF candidates drifts down towards 1/3 or 33% the likelihood of another 2 candidates getting enough votes to squeeze out one of those 2 FF candidates starts to increases exponentially. The other factor here is the intra-party competition and the tradition of appeals to "lend me your No.1, sure John is ok." This has lead to the situation arising, which seems to cause such surprise in so many observers from overseas, of long time sitting TDs losing their seats to their running mates who some might have been as being on the under billing.

Taking Donegal SW as an example FF got 42% there which mirrors their national result almost exactly and their two candidates

Donegal SW in 2002

FF Pat Gallagher 7,740 21.72% 0.87
FF Mary Coughlan 7,257 20.36% 0.81
FG Dinny McGinley 4,378 12.29% 0.49

________________________________________
FG James White 4,680 13.13% 0.53
SF Pearse Doherty 2,696 7.57% 0.30
IND Joe Kelly 3,091 8.67% 0.35 (5)
IND Thomas Pringle 2,630 7.38% 0.30
Lab Séamas Rodgers 1,079 3.03% 0.12
SF Tom Dignam 1,133 3.18% 0.13
IND Gwen Breslin 951 2.67% 0.11

Now, imagine if the national picture is again mirrored here with exactly the same line up and FF were to drop 6%, coupled with a corresponding reversal in the rates of transfers that occurred in ’02. One possible group of scenarios is that the loss is evenly divided between the two FF candidates. In a situation where the 6% were to coalesce around one of the unsuccessful candidates White or Doherty, or the final successful candidate McGinley then they should be able to ensure that 2 from those three would be elected. Only if the 6% is scattered evenly (with the attendant attrition when transferred) would the two FF TDs be favoured to survive. In ’02 the transfer rate to the FF candidates was 25% compared to up to 65% internal to the non FF candidates. Even when Doherty of SF was eliminated in ’02 40% of his vote was available to be transferred between the two remaining FG candidates.

FF Pat Gallagher 18.72% 0.87
FF Mary Coughlan 17.36% 0.81
FG Dinny McGinley 12.29% 0.49 (18.29% 0.49)
________________________________________
FG James White 13.13% 0.53 (19.13% 0.53)

SF Pearse Doherty 7.57% 0.30 (13.57% 0.30)
IND Joe Kelly 8.67% 0.35
IND Thomas Pringle 7.38% 0.30
Lab Séamas Rodgers 3.03% 0.12
SF Tom Dignam 3.18% 0.13
IND Gwen Breslin 2.67% 0.11

Couple such a reduction in the total party vote available with the greatest fear of any Irish politician, that the perception that they are safe will get out and they will see that on election night their 1st preference vote will go wandering about assisting others who were not in any real danger at all. Some have made a tradition of this electoral poor mouth and become such quota sitters that in area where once their party challenged for two seats they are now fighting it out over the one (Kerry North is an example of this for FF, Galway West for FG).

So in the DSW situation outlined above where the 6% is evenly distributed would most likely not happen at all. Instead, we would get the following.

FF Pat Gallagher 20.72% 0.87
FF Mary Coughlan 15.36% 0.81
FG Dinny McGinley 12.29% 0.49 (18.29% 0.49)
________________________________________
FG James White 13.13% 0.53 (19.13% 0.53)

SF Pearse Doherty 7.57% 0.30 (13.57% 0.30)
IND Joe Kelly 8.67% 0.35
IND Thomas Pringle 7.38% 0.30
Lab Séamas Rodgers 3.03% 0.12
SF Tom Dignam 3.18% 0.13
IND Gwen Breslin 2.67% 0.11

In this situation Coughlan could possibly not be saved. Note the drop we are talking about from 42% to 36% is not as great as some of the polls are currently predicting.

Political compasses

You are a Social Liberal (76% permissive) and an... Economic Liberal (33% permissive) You are best described as a: Democrat Link: The Politics Test on Ok Cupid Also: The OkCupid Dating Persona Test

I have to say I have my doubts about this one, there again it is an American one and from an American perspective perhaps I am a democrat.

1140 days to go

Not a lot to report that would be interest to the casual viewer though I've been given some considerable pause to wonder if the political life is worth anything when you see behaviour like that at the PD conference where policies are recycled in such a brazen manner.

The Pretty Desperate Partyif you ask me.

In the future there will be dinosaurs

I need to blog more, or write more and perhaps at a later date convert that writing into blog entries at least.

There was an interesting discussion, or it was the beginning of an interesting discussion about pensions in Ireland on Q&A last night .

Part of the fiction around pensions is that the income people get from their pension is the return on some investment that was made on their behalf. In the public system what happens is that what you as S. TaxPayer pay in PRSI goes start out the door into the pocketboook of O. Pensioner. This is how it has been since state pensions were first introduced in Ireland as part of Lloyd George progam back in 1908 i think it was. The state started to collect money off people and pay it out to the old on the basis that the people they were collecting it off would get a pension in turn when it was their time.

Interestingly, many of those who would have been collecting in the 1950s/1960s were shuffled off this mortal coil by the Great War, so that helped to balance the books a bit.






free enneagram test

Election Day

June 12th, 2009 is the probable date for the 2009 local elections

So, as of December 15th that would be only 1275 days to go!

And as for New Year's day 2006 that would be only 1258 days to go! Just to leave it nice and round I'll officially start campaign from 1200 days to go and then do regular campaign updates every 200 days or so until we're down to 400 day. I'll update the frequency at that point.

I will try to use this blog as a sounding board for some ideas as and when they occur to me. I'm genuinely interested in peoples comments.

Some Posts I made elsewhere

This is from a while back and refers to a taped conversation with Pres. Bush.

Pearl's a Sinner.

In a recently released, secretly taped conversation with a friend, Pres. Bush spoke of how he wouldn't fire gays because he was himself a sinner. The nature of the remarks themselves did come in for some comment in the media, and to be honest the ‘I’m a sinner’ defence is a little too much of a catch all. For example one might just as easily say “I can’t fire homicidal maniacs from the cabinet because I’m a sinner”. Not that I’m personally implying that being gay is equivalent to being a homicidal maniac. Still, it occurred to me that one aspect of the President’s behaviour was not as widely commented on. The consistency between what he had said in that conversation and what he has done in office, and how rare such consistency appears to be in public life.

Odd as it may sound he was saying something in private and demonstrating in public something that we could do with seeing more of in public life. Consistency is sadly lacking in the practice of modern politics. In part because too many people are primarily, indeed we might say solely concerned, with ‘winning’, even if that means completely changing their own expressed views in order to do so. For me this can only be possible with a complete denial of that which a person should be in politics for. What I believe people should be in politics for is the furtherance of ideas they actually believe in. Politics is meant to be the contest of ideas of how we can live our lives, and it is up to the voters to decide which ideas are most appropriate, or which sit most comfortably with them. The voters should do this after being presented with these ideas by people of ability who have given their all to show why these ideas that they have chosen to articulate are the best and most appropriate to a given situation. If the person presenting the ideas simply changes their mind in order to get themselves into a position of power or influence then what is the real difference between they getting elected and someone else who originally held those beliefs? Being a partisan politician and expressing at the limit of your voice, to stretch your abilities to attain a position to be able to do what you hold in your heart to be true and to use your mind and your skills to defend those same beliefs is part of what constitutes the democratic politics of the republican model we have.
Hypocrisy is often mistakenly identified in people who say do as I say and not as I do. In actuality true hypocrisy is to expect people to do something that you do not believe to be the right thing in the first place. If the President was being properly hypocritical he might have commented that he saw nothing wrong in being gay but that he was going to fire people to assuage the Christian right or that he thought being gay was a terrible thing but than he wouldn’t be taking any action because it was likely to be politically dangerous to do so. I seem to recall Neal Stephenson making a somewhat similar point in The Diamond Age. He probably made the point a lot better though.

Kevin Myers and babies

Earlier in 2005, Kevin Myers put his foot in the whole single parent discussion with predictable results.

It might be possible, if we examine the broader picture, to drag the discussion, began by Dr. Ed Walsh, out of the mire that Mr. Kevin Myers comments dragged it into a few months back. Much has been written about the specifics while missing some of the elements of the broader picture. It is often overlooked that the overall increase in percentage terms that lone parents constitute of the national birthrate is as much due to increased numbers of people in relationships being unable to afford to have children due to burdensome mortgages and insane commutes, as it is to do with an increase in numbers of people having children alone. Article 41 of the constitution states "The State shall, therefore, endeavour to ensure that mothers shall not be obliged by economic necessity to engage in labour to the neglect of their duties in the home." This would appear to be part of the reasoning behind having specific payments for parents that are caring for their children who are not married. Society and parents would be better served if we removed the distinction between parents that the One-Parent Family Payment creates by removing this payment completely. In turn we would increase the payments available to all families by way of moving the money currently given directly to the unmarried parent to child benefit. This change would at a stroke remove the opportunity for abuse inherent in One-Parent Family Payment, whereby a couple pretend that one parent is raising the child when both parents are in fact together. This increase in child benefit being means tested in incremental steps if necessary to ensure that it is targeted at those who need it most. People who have made a public commitment to each other and who take the responsibility to provide a secure home for their children are both forced out of that home to work in order to afford it, to spend increasing amounts of their lives commuting to work, and to spend mortgage payments levels of money on childcare. We should be able to rebalance the state incentive to those who are prepared to make a commitment to each other and to their children without leaving anyone in poverty as a result. Parents are parents and children are children. It is unclear why the state should give money to some and not to others based on factors other than economic circumstances.

The Hokey Cokey and other tales.

Back in April 2004, there was an attempt to ban coke products from the UL campus, below is just one perspective on what was involved.

5 - The Hokey Cokey You can get some feel for the campaign so far at MGB's Blog of illusions. All in all, the "YES" to a coke boycott campaign has rested on the fact that people who work for Coke and are union activits get murdered by paramilitaries in Colombia (presumably by right wing ones, but since no one has been nicked for it, it remains a presumption). What is unknown is do non-union Coke employees get murdered in Colombia at all? Or at a higher/lower rate than the union members? What is the murder rate for other union members in other companies in Colombia? My sources suggest that the turnout will fall short of what is needed for a binding referendum. In UL, this figure is about 1800, it has to be 20% or more. With only one sabbatical officer position up for contest, interest is very low in the elections in general and the "YES" campaign have not made the necessary efforts to educate or enthuse the electorate. I'd reckon it will fall well short of reaching 1500, and also that the YES campaign will struggle to get 35%. Following on to the NUIM rejection of this issue and NUIG decision that it wasn't worth putting to the student body; it may be that the folks outside the pale are less willing to indulge their inner flake.



Cats chase mice, report reveals! Fantastical nonsense from Hibernian Insurance today about the accident rates on bank holiday Friday and the number of men compared to women that make claims on their insurance. This delight piece of opinion is available here 'Road traffic accidents increase by more than a third on the Friday of bank holiday weekends, according to a leading insurance company. Hibernian Insurance says it receives on average 35 per cent more claims on bank holiday Fridays that on an average day. The Hibernian "Crash Report" contains for the first time a detailed examination of the company's claims records over the past four years. The report also adds fuel to the age-old battle of the sexes about who is the better driver. It says: "Men are also more likely to have an accident, and make 24 per cent more claims than women." ' Also, male claims are for a higher value than women! A fact buried in main report is that Friday are the highest claim day of the week anyway. There is no reference to how much more traffic is the road on bank holiday Fridays. If traffic were up by 50% and claims by 40% then it could be said that accident rates actually drop on these busier days. Sadly, the report doesn't bother to tell us this. As for male claims being of a higher level to those of females, that couldn't have anything to do with the fact that male earnings tend to be higher for men than women. So, loss of earnings claims will be higher. Something the Equality agency could have told them. We really should get these two together. Also, men's cars will tend to be larger and more expensive. There is no reference to what impact the proportion of females drivers tend to be on provisional licenses and the attendant impact that has on women not claiming as it would have a significant impact on their premiums such that it is not worth claiming. And of course, there will be a greater proportion of male drivers in their 40s/50s/60s who are more comfortable with making claims. The report doesn't mention at all the proportions of male/females drivers on the road, nor the amount of miles the two genders do respectively each year either. Of course, you know that the more you drive has no impact on the likelihood of you being in an accident. I believe the media has a role to play here, instead of just spewing out this stuff for the insurance industry. Why not do some investigation of the figures and then look for some really interesting stats. Such as when time on bank holidays do the accidents occur, on what type of roads, and compare those figures to other Fridays not just 'an average day'? where was the driver coming from? how far from home were they? Do many people have crashes down the country late in the evening after spending 5 hours getting out of Dublin for weekend? Might they have not been better off getting the train? What next, Amber Solaire reveal 'Sunburn occurs mainly during the daylight hours.'?


Bringing up baby I would like to say that I support the introduction of common, national program of sex and relationship education in all Irish second level education providers. However, I would allow parents and schools to have an opt out on the single proviso that they sign a consent form exempting their offspring / pupils from lone parent support while they are under 18. In other words, if you don't want your child to receive such information in school, and if you believe that it is your role as parent to provide such information and advice for your child and that you should take full responsibility for doing so and that includes the consequences of your failure to do so. If as a result of your decision that your child should learn about sex and relationships from you they later become pregnant then you and not the rest of the public should shoulder the burden of that decision. Once your child is 18 and an adult in the eyes of the state then they can avail of the same provisions as everyone else. Until that time you as their parent should take care of them. After all, you decided they didn't need to know about 'that sort of thing' and as their parent you know best!


Thursday, May 19. 2005 Cleaning House Some may notice and others may not, that I've deleted my original entries and reposted them. I say that these are the same as what was originally posted. The purpose was to get rid of those rather nasty trackbacks. Some people may think I talk a lot of crap but that stuff was nasty. I've suggested in the forum and I'm going to outline it in greater clarity here that we need to ensure that parents take greater responsiblity for their offspring. With this in mind, I suggest that we create a license for the purchase of alcohol and cigs. To get this license you need to be over 18 / 16 in the case of cigs, and have attended an education course ( a couple of days, which should be part of a civics course in the secondary education cycle). These licenses are then issued in the form of an id card. You would not be required to produce this id card for any other purpose than the purchase of alcohol or the consumption of same on a licensed premises. And intriguing possibility that would arise from having such cards is that parents could lose their drinking privileges for the misbehaviour of their offspring while they are minors. Another proposal is that we appoint the Finnish model of progressive fines, whereby fines are linked to income so that richer groups don't feel that they can buy their way out of the sanctions of society. However, this would also mean that irrespective of your financial situation you must pay something.

The remains of the King

What the King saw.

I saw these and thought they were reflective of opinions I would share in part.


1 - In the Beginning there was darkness, and what was so bad about that?


2 – So, young man. Where do you think you're coming from then, at this time of night? It is intended by the provided of this page that matters political should be presented by wise personages or people of sufficient belief in their own rightness that they will post opinions and in doing so an opportunity is provided for those matters to be discussed. Well, that is sort of how it was explained to me!

So, what do I think politics is? this is the "what's it all about, Kingy?" moment.

Two words. Choice. Change.

These twin Ccs are for me what defines all forms of politics and all political viewpoints. Depending on your views you either favour more choice in the world than there is at present or you favour there being less choice available or that the choice be available to only certain people. Similarly with change you either believe the society that you live in needs to change in some or all areas, or you believe that everything is fine as it is.

I believe in making as much choice available to people who are deemed by our society to be adults as is possible. Restrictions on those choices should only occur where they infringe on the rights of other people both adult and non-adult to make choices of their own.

I believe that to do this the society in which I live needs to change. Many of those changes would be quite radical. However, I don't propose that this change happen overnight. Indeed, I believe the society is currently unprepared or ill-equipped to take on such adult roles.

One might say we need to embark on a state of permanent revolution!

Isn't it time it was your choice for a change?

Old tales of deeds done, and not to be dusted.

Some items from the previous electoral jousts.


This pole was quite prophetic! Bottom of the pile! Unlike this poll which unfortunately for me wasn't so accurate. Still, it is good that the local media make the effort to take soundings and to involve people in the process.

Other images

posters1 , posters2

Only 1370 days to go!

Under construction...

People will be able to find some information here but for the most part I'm planning on posting information and comment via this blog.