Where it went wrong for Hillary

You see I can be wrong! what did I forget in my prediction? I forgot all those smaller states that Obama simply rolled up like so much carpet.

http://dansullivan.blogspot.com/2008/02/hillary-vs-who-and-what.html

McCain is the nominee but will he have the right to himself?

With all the focus we seemed to have glossed over the fact that McCain barely got over 51% in Texas as I suspected he might. Of course people may just be blowing off steam secure in the knowledge that McCain was to all intents home and hosed. Aren't there still signs of problems there for McCain there?

It won't be Huckabee, it may not even be a Republican but I suspect we will see a 3rd party family values, social conservative emerge in the next few months. Someone will do the rounds of the talk shows, write a book, pick a fight with Hollywood and generally seek to defend their view of the family.

This is Super Tuesday!

So who is it to be? On the traditional date for Super Tuesday, we've got 4 races for the Dems with the two smaller ones Rhode Island and Vermont expected to split one a piece for Clinton and Obama. The big delegate counts are in Ohio and Texas. And I think that Clinton will win both but she won't make that much of a gain delegate wise. If Obama wins both then I think it will be curtains for Clinton, though she may hang in there with one last throw of the dice until Penn.

The complicated nature of the polling in Texas (it's both a caucus and a primary!) will mean that irrespective of who wins the margin of victory would need to be huge or it won't change much. Ohio represents the much better chance for Clinton to make some proper gains but even there it is a mess. A 60%/40% in a 4 seat district gets you 2 seats a piece. It is almost as if the Dem never thought they might end up having a tight two horse race because their systems teams neither candidate can really break away. For more detail check out the guru.

The Republicans are still going through the motions of a primary race. I do have to wonder what the Ron Paul supporters will do if he breaks 10% in Texas! Probably declare victory.

Update 5.39pm local time: I have a feeling that McCain might not break 50% in Texas.

Another first for election '08? Senator vs. Senator?

One aspect of 2008 election race which has slipped all our notice is that this time irrespective of whether Obama or Clinton is the nominee for the Democrats that this is going to be the first election in which the candidates are members of the Senate. None of the main candidates of the main parties (McCain, Clinton, Obama) has ever served in a executive position before whether as Governor, President or VP.

It has been said that it is particularly hard for members of the Senate to run and win as they tend to have voting records with which their opponents can bash them over the head with along with a Governor/President/Veep being able to claim exclusive credit for initiative X

I'm going to check it out in more detail but so far I'm back in the 1800s and still no similar race in sight.

Update: back to McKinley in 1896 so far and can't find a Senator vs. Senator contest.

Update further: Yesterday evening I went all the way back and could not find a Presidential general election which was contested by two members of the Senate. So yep this is a first.