Why stamp duty matters

What seems to have been missed by Cowen and other FF ministers who have chosen to defend the current stamp duty system is that those buying houses have to find the money to pay it from their deposit savings. The money to pay for the stamp duty comes out of your savings not the mortgage. So you if you're bidding on a house which many in the 2nd hand market the price can easily move from one threshold to another. Of course, the minister and the revenue know this which is why the bands from 190,000 to 382,000 move through 5 bands while the next doubling of value involves just one jump.

It might surprise the minister for finance but you're not getting squat in Dublin for under €317,500 these day. So first time buyer or not, if you've saved €32,000 as a deposit and then when you bid on a house and it goes over 317,500 you have to find another €9,525 cash in order to pay for the house. That is a lot of cash to come up with.

Of course the minister is strangely content to force young couples to move out to Meath, Kildare, Wicklow into new estates as it benefits the building industry. The fact that it means new schools have to be built and old ones in more central areas have to demolished is also good for builders.

These are the current bands.

€127,001 - €190,500

Exempt

3%

€190,501 - €254,000

Exempt

4%

€254,001 - €317,500

Exempt

5%

€317,501 - €381,000

3%

6%

€381,001 - €635,000

6%

7.5%

Over €635,000

9%

9%

N7 road accidents: "The scene resembled ’a war zone’"

The unfolding disaster on the N7 has got to see a rethink of the culture of driving in Ireland. 40 collisions on the one stretch of road in the matter of a few hours can't be described as anything but a disaster. I hope that those in a critical condition pull through and those seriously injured aren't too badly hurt.

However, we need to be honest enough with ourselves to ask the hard questions as to whether we have properly functioning warnings for the presence of fog on the route and to what extent driver behaviour was at fault.

The speed limit is the maximum you are supposed to drive at if the conditions are perfect. It is not an entitlement.

FF's response to "Auction Politics"

Don't Panic!

Cowen's knowledge of the housing market

I think it was informative to listen to Brian Cowen on Saturday suggesting that Fine Gael's stamp duty proposals would be some sort of Godzilla to the Irish housing market. It might have occurred to Cowen to tell this to his colleague McDowell who was the one to put the skids under the market last autumn. Cowen devoted quite a while to explain why people won't buy houses because 3 years from now! because the stamp duty would be less.

It might have slipped by Cowen's notice but people have to live somewhere in the interim period if they were to hold off buying their house and that money they pay out in rent isn't going into the equity of their house unlike what their mortgage payments would be. Telling people in advance what the government are going to do aids stability in the market, uncertainty as to what the government is going to do is what causes destabilisation.

The real people Cowen was concerned about and who might decide to hold off on buying houses was not owner occupiers but investors. FF concern about housing is more at needs of the suppliers who provide so much funding for the party and not the average Seamus and Joan looking for a home.

Of course, Cowen told us that the proposals smacked of people who had no knowledge of how the housing market worked. Well, Cowen's primary knowledge of the housing market is based on his experience as a solicitor and that would have been doing conveyancing, a field that was insisting on charging a set % fee of the purchase similar to estate agents (and how the stamp duty system operates today) despite there being no extra work involved in a €150,000 house than in a €300,000 one. Nice work if you can get it.

The new National Consumer Affairs Office

I caught the end of Prime Time last night: BSG is on the same time and frankly I need to the distraction - the final five who could they be?

Have to I was very, very disappointed by the self satisfied performance of Aine Fitzgerald the new head of the National Consumer Agency (NCA). She was asked several times by Miriam O'Callaghan why she thought she would be able to do something about rip offs and she claimed that having a budget of €15 million and powers of "research" would do the trick. Research eh! Didn't sound like she had any inclination of using powers that might any way inconvenience rip off merchants across the country.

I remember watching Carmel Foley who was at the Office of the Director of Consumer Affairs the predecessor to the NCA tackling the insurance and legal sectors when she was tasked with finding a means to reduce the costs of car insurance in Ireland and I was really impressed by her. Here was someone who was tenacious and focused and had no time for waffling. It was her work and not the political waffle of McDowell that led to the creation of the establishment of the Personal Injuries Assessment Board. Sadly she is since off to somewhere else in the state sector the Garda Ombudsman's office I think. Our gain from the perspective of a well run police force but our loss as consumers.

Sarah Carey - I've got a bone to pick with you!

In her Sunday Times column Sarah Carey revisits the issue of coverage of the Monaghan car crash of last October. She starts off by talking about the lack of coverage that inquests get as compared to the incidents themselves. Strange thing I had posted specifically on the issue of the lack of coverage of inquests last October as part of Damien Blakes efforts to get something together under the technorati label of roadsafetyblog. And I'd commented on the same specific subject in Sarah's own post which she posted a week later on the topic back in November. Now, it's not plagiarism by any means but I've been getting a little more thin skinned of late when folks repeat things I've said or posted whether on the blog or elsewhere as if it was an idea that had popped fully formed into their heads. I suspect that the youtube article in the ST hasn't helped my perspective either.

Sadly this Paddy's weekend has seen yet more road deaths, five in Donegal alone. Of course at this time we can't know what caused each of these deaths and what factors were at play. However, it is likely that when it comes around to the inquests and as the causes are uncovered that discussion in the DeadTreePress will be noticeable again by its absence.

Slightly miffed at the Sunday Times

I'm sort of miffed today at the Sunday Times and Mark Tighe. Mark's piece about the use of youtube by the PDs and the upcoming election appears to be a piece of advertising for the PDs use of YouTube. My own piece " You pay taxes" has had 4 times the traffic that the PD's A Vision for Ireland and was nominated for a Blog Award but doesn't rate a mention.

Richard Delevan and I had a discussion about the issue of election spending limits and the use of Youtube back on Jan 2nd of this year in the comments on his post on negative advertising. Basically, the big cost will be on the production side. And I agree with the comments of Simon McGarr that the contributions of Ciaran Cuffe and Dominic Hannigan are the most effective examples of the format. Short, frequent and focused. Long wandering sagas just bore people.

There again I spent the whole of Paddy's Day doing battle with the flu using the heavy artillery of Lemsip Max so that might be affecting my humour.

Beyond Stamp Duty

The proposals to attempt to reform the current stamp duty regime released by FG during the previous week drew some rather arched criticism from of all people the PDs. This is all very ironic as there is increasing evidence that it was McDowell's thinking aloud exercise that has provided the trigger to the general destabilisation of the housing market. It seems a sufficient number of people started to postpone purchases in the aftermath of his comments because they believed that something might happen in the budget and then when it didn't they've continued to hold off because they are now convinced something might happen after the election.

The key difference is that FG proposals would take affect in a planned, heavily signposted manner over the course of 3 years and announcing it within weeks of the general election are not going to put the brakes on the housing market. As others would point out being the leader of a party requires a completely different set of skills to being a leading figure in a party. This means to be something that McDowell appears to have failed to grasp as yet. And it remains to be seen with the election in the next two months if he will ever get the chance to learn it.

I'm going to do a follow up post on my own view of where we should go with stamp duty, local taxes and other fun topics.

Intruder alert at the white House - Stifler and the Taoiseach!

I was watching the RTe news and noticed that they were reporting that there had been a security breach at the White House when Bertie was giving Bush the ould bowl of Shamrock. Personally, my respect for Batty would have gone up if he had had a go at Bush for coming out with that "Top of the morning", nonsense. I daren't imagine what Bush says as a greeting to Condaleeza Rice when she comes into work.

Anyway, after the giving of the green, the Ahern double act was talking to the press in some hallway or alcove when I realised that in the background was the Stiflermeister himself. In the top shot you can see him clearly, and in the second shot he is clear asking where are all the red haired Irish Catholic females he had been promised.

RTE cock up chip and PIN demo

RTE were covering the changeover to Chip and PIN that kicks in from tomorrow on the 6.1 news, and I happened to notice in their demonstration of how you use the card that they actually put the hologram into the chip read and not the chip side of the Credit Card.

See here - >

Another driving inquest

You can get Irish Times coverage or from the Irish Independent

This crash happened outside Dundalk in last of May of last year (2006). The car wasn't fit to drive, the ABS didn't work and the back tyres were worn and they were doing 90kph in a 50 kph zone at night (3am) when visibility wasn't going to be great.

From the report "In returning a verdict of accidental death, the jury said it felt that had the ABS been working properly, there could have been a different outcome. It added that an inaccurate press release had caused undue grief to both families. A forensic collision investigator told the jury in Dundalk on Monday that the anti-lock braking system was not working and he estimated Mr Hoey had been driving at 90kph at least within a 50kph zone. The jury heard that the back two tyres of Mr Hoey's car were excessively worn and that the car was unfit for use."

So another pair of deaths that were tragically avoidable.

Did any of you lot ever have to make something for a living?

I was watching Mary Coughlan on Q&A this week and since I'm of roughly a similar vintage to Mary it struck me when she was talking about upskilling and the knowledge based economy that she's never really had to do any of those things herself. And not just her. Just look at the work background of the members of the cabinet since 2002.

Bertie Ahern - Bertie was a book keeper for the Mater before become a TD.

Mary Harney - was very briefly a secondary school teacher between her gradution in 1976 and her appointment to the Seanad by Jack Lynch in 1977.

Michael McDowell - a barrister since 1974. Not a lot of make and do in the old law library.

Mary Coughlan - Very briefly worked as a social worker after college before taking her seat in a bye election.

John O'Donoghue - A local solicitor

Dermot Ahern - A local solicitor

Brian Cowen - A local solicitor

Noel Dempsey - Career guidance teacher

Mary Hanafin - secondary school teacher

Micheál Martin - secondary school teacher.

Séamus Brennan - an accountant

Martin Cullen - worked as a sales manager for a wine company. Seriously a wine company!

Dick Roche - Masters Degree in Public Administration. Roche worked as a public servant at the Departments of Posts & Telegraphs, Transport & Power, Finance and at the Department of Economic Planning & Development. In 1978 he was appointed lecturer in Public Administration and Public Finance at UCD. A man so wedded to being a public servant it is hard to imagine him ever having to make something himself.

Willie O'Dea - O'Dea worked as a barrister and an accountant, and lectured at University College Dublin and the University of Limerick well really NIHE Limerick.

Charlie McCreevy - did Commerce at University College Dublin and went on to become a chartered accountant

Éamon Ó Cuív - was manager of Gaeltacht Co-operative, a company involved in agricultural services including timber milling, tourism and cultural development.

Michael Smith - Farmer, so at least he knows something about getting his hands dirty.

Joe Walsh - Walsh was a researcher in the National Dairy Research Centre at Moorepark and ended up as Managing Director of Strand Dairies in Clonakilty.

So it is only the last 3 that actually know what it is like to make or produce something for a living. Feel free to draw your own conclusions.

Harney caught at press launch by voter

On the TV3 news yesterday we had what might have been an early contender for one the moments of the as yet undeclared election campaign. Harney was challenged at the luanch of the latest PD campaign truck/poster on the state of A&E by an voter the lack of any paediatric immunology cover in Ireland. It was on the 5.30pm TV3 news. Sadly, TV3 don't stream or archive their news nor do they do a late night news or I would have recorded it then.

It is reminiscent of this moment for Blair in 2001, not quite as damaging perhaps but a sign of the times for Harney

http://news.bbc.co.uk/vote2001/hi/english/newsid_1334000/1334131.stm

Strangly no one else covered it or showed the footage though I'm pretty sure RTe had cameras there. I suspect we may see more of this in the rest of the campaign.

So women's rights is political now is it?

Strange that the BCI would find that a campaign to ensure that female babies are allowed the same opportunities as male babies is deemed political and can't be broadcast. The people trying to change the government is political and wrong apparently but the government trying to change the people is non-political and A-OK! See that ad below and make up your own mind.

The Monaghan car crash - Lives lived and lost in vain

roadsafetyblog

As part of Damien Blakes efforts to highlight the problem of road deaths I created this post back in October. The event that prompted this was the deaths of five young men in Monaghan in a head on collision.

There were other posts from many other bloggers under the technorati tag of roadsafetyblog .At the time my own particular take on the situation was on the relative disparity in coverage given to the crash when it happens compared to that given to the inquest or the uncovering of the causes which tends to happen much later. Others commented on other aspects of this crash or road safety more generally. One in particular Sarah Carey received quite strong condemnation for having the insensitivity to voice an opinion about the circumstances when the cause of the crash had still to be determined at an inquest. Yet she was not alone in being attacked for having an opinion. Indeed, some folks took it upon themselves, and it appears have done so again, to try and intimidate people from commenting on this incident. Well, I said my piece at the time and I'm saying it again now. And I'm not going to be shut up or go away.

Let us start with some facts. At the inquest held this past week we were told that both drivers involved were substantially over the alcohol limit, were driving at speeds which would not have been appropriate during daylight not to mind 2am at night and at least one of the drivers didn’t have his seatbelt on.

Pathologist Dr John Ryan said that Ciarán Hagan had a blood-alcohol level of 201mgs per 100ml and a urine-alcohol level of 253mgs. He was driving alone in his Blue Golf, and it was he that crossed the road, he was doing 100km per at 2am on a road that allows for 80km maximum during daylight.

Dermot Thornton had a blood-alcohol of 147mgs per cent and urine-alcohol level of 196mgs per cent. He was driving the Red Golf at 125 km with the 3 passengers on a road that allows for 80km during the daylight. The blood and urine levels of both drivers would indicate that both had what is euphemistically “a good bit to drink”.

No one has said as much but it is plain that since one of the cars crossed over the median of the road to travel in the opposite at speed towards the other car that both drivers were engaged in reckless and irresponsible behaviour by speeding and driving while drunk. Whether both or one of them was playing "chicken" according to what it is generally understand to be chicken doesn't matter. They could have been blindfolded and naked, playing the banjo for all the difference it makes. They were hammered and driving dangerously at night. 201mg for 100ml of blood is blind fucking drunk in anyone's language.

I appreciate that this is a terrible loss for the families and friends of those concerned. Yet, we do everyone a disservice if we allow that to blind us to the wrongness of their behaviour. Imagine for moment that these two cars had not met each other but instead if they had each individually encountered some stone cold sober couple with their children in their car returning from a wedding. Those would be the innocents not either of these two drivers.

We will change no one's behaviour while we persist in honouring the dead who did not die with honour. We have as a nation a terrible tendency to view such deaths as if they were something that had simply come upon the people concerned. These lads were not struck down by a terrible disease. They were their own victims. The Japanese as a nation have a similarly self evidently stupid attitude to WWII acting as if it was some awful thing that happened and which they were simply innocent bystanders in instead of something they had been active participants involved in.

If it was a member of my family I would be angry with them for being so fucking stupid. I wouldn’t love them any less but I would be angry and disappointed with them and I would not seek to defend what they had done.

Some would say that the rest of us should try to do something so that their deaths might not be in vain. We can’t do that. Their deaths were in vain, will always be in vain and nothing anyone does can change that. They did not intend to die but they did know what they were doing and their deaths are a waste. And people who waste are…. We should not seek to honour them. We should have sympathy for the families but not for the men themselves. It is vanity and self indulgence that led to these deaths. At the time of the crash many said that we should not be so quick to pass judgement. Well, now we’ve had the inquest where are the apologies for attacking those who pointed out what was reckless and dangerous behaviour?

Did they deserve to die? No. However, they did not deserve to kill anyone else either. It would not be right to say they killed themselves but it would seem correct to say that they killed each other. If society has any blame in this it is the local society that they were apart of that glorifies racing about the place at speed. And this has nothing to do with rallying or loving cars. The Scots and Scandinavians have strong rallying traditions and nowhere near our level of road deaths perhaps because they have the cop on or respect for the lives of others to know not to drive as these lads did on a public road.

We as a nation need to think more about the lives we can still save rather than those that are gone. We can't simply leave people alone in their grief while those who continue to drive as these young men did are killing people up and down the country. These young men may have loved life but they evidently had little respect for the lives of others.

If they chose to buy some land and race about on it and end up killing themselves then it would be one thing. However, when you behave as they did on a public road then don't expect me to weep for your passing.

It was noted that the deceased had all been loved by their families, neighbours and friends and that their deaths had left a huge void in the community. I can understand your friends and family missing you but truth be told I’m not sure why anyone else should. Or why we should be expected to mourn the loss of people we never knew. When you really love someone you know they have faults but love them anyway, to try and hide such faults when they have contributed to their own deaths is truly to do a service to the dead.

We’ve had the inquest and the relative silence of the press has been deafening. Where is the strong media focus now that we do know the factors involved in this shameful lose of life? The reason for highlighting the reckless behaviour at the time is the chance we might have the most effect on those who might do the same. It is far too late once the sudden horror has passed. Not much point in seeing Charlie Bird on the roadside or getting the big Sunday paper coverage now.

You can find the Irish Times coverage of the inquest here and from the Independent here.

Beyond Proctor & Gamble

Over on Irishelection Simon of the dossing times has made a good point about how we need to see past the current problems in Irish manufacturing to what the solution might be to the wider problem of having sustainable economy growth.

One aspect I would pick up on is the availability of low cost warehouse style office space something that is still shockingly expensive in Ireland no matter where you go to look for it. Part of that is the result of we not having a previous manufacturing base that left hollowed out shells of buildings. Of course the people in Stanford didn’t really need to worry about heating that much but the fact is that it is more profitable to leave much space lie empty that lease it out.

Also, the point of FDI was to use it as a boost to the economy while we were supposed to be spending the money in ramping the economy up for the move to the model you suggest, much like some doing overtime or working in a crap job while they went to night school or saved to pay for an expensive course. Instead I would contend that the government has squandered all the money we the people earned on the societal equivalent of plasma screens and PS3’s.

State socialism vs. Naked Capitalism

I've tried to sum things up before but I think the paragraphs below come closest to expressing my view on the failings of the soviet union.

The problem for the soviet style socialism was that it ignored and was in turn undermined by human nature, while capitalism for all it's faults uses human nature as the engine to make it work. Socialism tries to change human nature, capitalism uses it.

It is more straightforward and easier to try and make a pure capitalist system work in a more equitable manner than to get a socialist system which may be more equitable in theory to work at all.

See - I really was there.

I'm the one in the middle looking for an escape route if I was to snatch an award and run for it.

Frakking RSI

I woke early on Monday morning with a shocking pain in my right arm and nothing I did would make it go away. Took some Solpadeine and while it dulled it, it didn't leave. After some thought I ended up get a shot in the arm from a doc ( and at what cost!). Probably it was cortisone but I didn't ask. It was not a pleasant experience at all and I've gone and bought myself a wrist support thingy, and I'm going to source a proper chair for the table the computer is on so I can make sure I'm at the right height. Hopefully, just a warning scare and nothing more. I have an aunt who got very bad arthritis in her late thirties so there is possible something lurking in the genes.

I was thinking that I should be claiming that I didn't win because my v'cast was too controversial. That somehow the government moved to have it and Mr. PotatoHead suppressed. I don't believe that at all. The winning entry was much more of a video that mine and I can see why the judges went with it. Actually, I'm not even sure if a v'cast belongs in a Blog awards. However, I wasn't going to make that point while I was still in with a chance to win.

In more political news the prospect of jobs losses at P&G at Nenagh should be sending alarm bells ringing at the department of Trade and Industry. Though whether there is anyone home to hear those bells is an open question. Michael Martin only does the good news I guess. My previous post on Dell is beginning to seem worryingly prescient.

Irish Blog awards - no prize for moi.

The Irish blog awards passed off peacefully, I would generally agree with most of the winners. The event itself was excellently organised, had very classy prizes and bottles of Champers for the winners too! Major kudos to Mulley and his team, they were very professional throughout.

One thing I did think was lacking was a certain loquaciousness in the acceptance speeches. Seriously folks, have you no mothers to thank? There was a very pretty press person from the IT who was hoping for good copy from the awards and who I suspect I insulted by asking if she was a cub reporter. I was very much intending to make up for my gaff by providing as much quotable material as possible if I got the chance. Sadly, it was not to be. I was going try and that the academy. Also, I had entertained hopes of getting a chance to appeal for votes for the Seanad but instead had to do it person by person.

I suppose it is more evidence that blogging allows a platform for folks who wouldn't dream of hopping up on a stage and gasbagging it away for ten minutes. The mix of people was great, not just a 20something sausage fest type gathering. Folks over 30 and ladies too. It was all very convivial.

While I didn't win for Video cast I did get complimented by twentymajor which is kind of the blogging equivalent of missing out on the best short live action movie Oscar only for a big time director to tell ya that he liked how you shot the action sequence.