I think the recent MRBI poll (published May 19th) boils down to the following, taken on the day itself of those prepared to give an opinion less than 1 in 3 of voterswill support FF and over 1 in 4 people will support FG. If after the long summer of world cup football, beautiful weather and fine women FF are still under 35% and FG are still over 25% then the whole thing is completely wide open from then on until polling day.
If FF did get over 35% in the September poll then I would expect them to give into the temptation and go to the country with a budget based election, it would represent their last chance to get enough support to have the seats to do a deal with Labour. We all know that FF +PDs isn't going to happen.
The PDs maxed out the last time and their only objective this time is to keep their losses at such a level that they don't become completely defunct. I would say that for this to happen they will need a minimum of 4 seats and at least 2 of Harney, McDowell and O'Donnell. For if it was Grealish, O'Malley (Limerick East), Sexton and A.N. Other from Dublin that survived then they would be finished as a party. They can possibly limp on after the loss of one from Harney, McDowell and O'Donnell but not the loss of two.
If FF are under 35% then they will wait it out and go for late Feb, hoping that the actuality of any budget freebies and the usual post Christmas bounce might carry them through. They can’t leave it until May as their support has consistently dropped as the year progresses. And they leave themselves totally at the mercy of events. And let's remember that we are all being told Bertie's isn't a gambler, isn't it a gamble wait for something to happen that might help them than to strike when the picture looks even just plausibly good.
It should be noted that I’ve had 3 / 4 separate reports in the last 2 months about printers here and outside the jurisdiction being put on a retainer for September and October by FF. They are committed to keeping the option open for a quick run as the light gets dark.
Fact is that FF doesn’t have the membership/manpower anymore to completely dominate the canvassing side of things like they once did. Will they have more than any single party on the ground, probably. Though FG would push them closer than they have for many years. Now for FF as a government party the battle must be on the TV and the airwaves, they will have money to burn and they know that ending up in opposition with SF would mean the probable loss of even more seats next time out to SF, irrespective of any gains they might hope to make back from FG, Labour, Greens and the defunct PDs if they bounced back. They simply can’t beat SF in an auction election. Truth is no one can beat SF in an auction because SF will happily promise you the farm because they know they won't do a deal after the election and so won't be called on to deliver.
With all else that happened in recent years the biggest campaigning problem for FF is that their public representatives who are seeking reelection don’t want to be encountering the members of the public who are annoyed about one thing and another. Sadly for them, the Fianna Fail party didn’t take the opportunity to completely lance the boil of public discontent back in 2004 but rather their TDs and most especially ministers avoided engaging the public and left the local election candidates to fend for themselves for the most part. And boy are those local reps sore about it.
The local FF candidates took the heat and bore the losses but it didn’t satisfy the public. I wonder for the local FF councillors how many will kill themselves to get some of the no show FF TDs and ministers back into power? After all, many of the younger ones who did survive ’04 may reckon this is their best means to get a run out the next time themselves. Let the public knock off the sitting TD and there is an opening in the next election, re-elected them and those young people who take the hit in '04 are locked out for another couple of cycles. One thing FF people are is ambitious.
Take a local example, if Deirdre Heney doesn’t run in DNE do you think she will burn as much shoe leather for Haughey or Callely in DNC as she did for herself in '02? Or if she does run in DNE will the local FF councillors there bother to help her and deprive themselves of any chance of run for a generation? Hardly.
Tuesday, May 23, 2006
Monday, May 22, 2006
The dangers of the 1 in 3 question for FF TDs
The Irish electoral system has by in large been kinder to the larger parties in terms of seat bonuses when comparing to the smaller parties.. Both FF and FG have benefited from this since independence. However, FF have been by far the greater beneficiary in the last two general elections. In the ‘02 General election they got somewhat less that 42% and got 49% of the seats available. One of the many contributory factors, though not the only one is the number of 3 seat constituencies in areas where FF are strongest.
However, this very preponderance of 3 seat constituencies in which FF hold 2 of the 3 seats becomes a major issue for that party when their national support drops below the figure of 1 in 3.
The Irish electoral system of Proportional Representation (PR) by means of the Single Transfer Vote (STV) actually will guarantee you 2 seats out of 3 for 50% +2 votes of the total valid poll if you run just 2 candidates and if it is evenly shared between those two candidates. This amounts to a vote of a slight bit more than 50% getting you all of 66% of the seats in those 3 seats constituencies. This is a whopping 15% bonus. Not bad at all for a supposedly proportionate voting system. Indeed, in practical terms getting 40% will usually mean you get 2 seats in such 3 seat constituencies if it has been reasonably competitive, say if the smaller parties such as the PDs, Greens, and SF have contested along with an independent or non-party candidate. In order to ensure that the % figures remains on the right side of 40% FF will often run sweeper or some might say spoiler candidates who are designed not alone to ensure that their total amounts to over 40% but that the remaining vote can't coalesce sufficiently around two of the remaining candidates. This increases the chances of a result of 2 from 3 even if one of those two is elected without reaching the quota.
However, as the total % available to the 2 main FF candidates drifts down towards 1/3 or 33% the likelihood of another 2 candidates getting enough votes to squeeze out one of those 2 FF candidates starts to increases exponentially. The other factor here is the intra-party competition and the tradition of appeals to "lend me your No.1, sure John is ok." This has lead to the situation arising, which seems to cause such surprise in so many observers from overseas, of long time sitting TDs losing their seats to their running mates who some might have been as being on the under billing.
Taking Donegal SW as an example FF got 42% there which mirrors their national result almost exactly and their two candidates
Donegal SW in 2002
FF Pat Gallagher 7,740 21.72% 0.87
FF Mary Coughlan 7,257 20.36% 0.81
FG Dinny McGinley 4,378 12.29% 0.49
________________________________________
FG James White 4,680 13.13% 0.53
SF Pearse Doherty 2,696 7.57% 0.30
Lab Séamas Rodgers 1,079 3.03% 0.12
SF Tom Dignam 1,133 3.18% 0.13
Now, imagine if the national picture is again mirrored here with exactly the same line up and FF were to drop 6%, coupled with a corresponding reversal in the rates of transfers that occurred in ’02. One possible group of scenarios is that the loss is evenly divided between the two FF candidates. In a situation where the 6% were to coalesce around one of the unsuccessful candidates White or Doherty, or the final successful candidate McGinley then they should be able to ensure that 2 from those three would be elected. Only if the 6% is scattered evenly (with the attendant attrition when transferred) would the two FF TDs be favoured to survive. In ’02 the transfer rate to the FF candidates was 25% compared to up to 65% internal to the non FF candidates. Even when Doherty of SF was eliminated in ’02 40% of his vote was available to be transferred between the two remaining FG candidates.
FF Pat Gallagher 18.72% 0.87
FF Mary Coughlan 17.36% 0.81
FG Dinny McGinley 12.29% 0.49 (18.29% 0.49)
________________________________________
FG James White 13.13% 0.53 (19.13% 0.53)
SF Pearse Doherty 7.57% 0.30 (13.57% 0.30)
Lab Séamas Rodgers 3.03% 0.12
SF Tom Dignam 3.18% 0.13
Couple such a reduction in the total party vote available with the greatest fear of any Irish politician, that the perception that they are safe will get out and they will see that on election night their 1st preference vote will go wandering about assisting others who were not in any real danger at all. Some have made a tradition of this electoral poor mouth and become such quota sitters that in area where once their party challenged for two seats they are now fighting it out over the one (Kerry North is an example of this for FF, Galway West for FG).
So in the DSW situation outlined above where the 6% is evenly distributed would most likely not happen at all. Instead, we would get the following.
FF Pat Gallagher 20.72% 0.87
FF Mary Coughlan 15.36% 0.81
FG Dinny McGinley 12.29% 0.49 (18.29% 0.49)
________________________________________
FG James White 13.13% 0.53 (19.13% 0.53)
SF Pearse Doherty 7.57% 0.30 (13.57% 0.30)
Lab Séamas Rodgers 3.03% 0.12
SF Tom Dignam 3.18% 0.13
In this situation Coughlan could possibly not be saved. Note the drop we are talking about from 42% to 36% is not as great as some of the polls are currently predicting.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)