Imagine what the reaction that would have come from many quarters if this result had happened with E-Voting machines in use. I would think that a good many people might have suspected some tampering.
Just goes to show the benefit of some transparency in the democratic process.
Saturday, May 26, 2007
How to go about forming an FG lead government.
I know most people will think this belongs in the realm of pure fantasy, but at this point in time we are looking at FG 51 + Lab 20 + Grn 6 = 77
If the PDs decide they have no future as a party then moves should be made to do the following
I would agree that this at this point in time might not seem the most likely of outcomes but those measures should be explored because while they might not result in a government lead by FG this year we may yet see one in the next 2/3 years.
Bev may have to step down inside the next 12 months if the RTe suit for bankruptcy is successful. This would result in a bye election that FG might well win if it were to happen when such a result would lead to a Mayo Taoiseach.
It is noteworthy that while the last few Dails have had no bye elections due to members passing away that some such as Jackie Healy Rae, Mary O'Rourke and Michael Woods are, as the sayings goes, getting on in years indeed all three are over 70 at this point. That is not something I'm exactly wishing for but we need to be realistic about the possibilities that might arise during the lifetime of the Dail.
So I am basically saying that I think that a new FF lead government might well not last 5 years. Of course my predictions on the election results were pretty off the mark so I will hold my hands up and admit my credibility on this might be viewed by some as being weak.
If the PDs decide they have no future as a party then moves should be made to do the following
- Elect Mary Harney as Ceann Comhairle, on the proviso that she would step down in advance of the next election allowing Tony Gregory to be elected as Ceann Comhairle securing his support. It would appear that Mary Harney does not wish to be leader of a party that requires considerable rebuilding and also that she was always planning on leaving the Oireachtas at the end of this the 30th Dail.
- Get Noel Grealish to join FG with the certainty of being an FG candidate for Galway West next time.
- Do a deal with Jackie Healy Rae which includes making one of his sons a Taoiseach's nominee for the Seanad giving him the profile to succeed Jackie next time out.
- Sort out some packages that would satisfy McGrath and Lowry over the lifetime of the government.
I would agree that this at this point in time might not seem the most likely of outcomes but those measures should be explored because while they might not result in a government lead by FG this year we may yet see one in the next 2/3 years.
Bev may have to step down inside the next 12 months if the RTe suit for bankruptcy is successful. This would result in a bye election that FG might well win if it were to happen when such a result would lead to a Mayo Taoiseach.
It is noteworthy that while the last few Dails have had no bye elections due to members passing away that some such as Jackie Healy Rae, Mary O'Rourke and Michael Woods are, as the sayings goes, getting on in years indeed all three are over 70 at this point. That is not something I'm exactly wishing for but we need to be realistic about the possibilities that might arise during the lifetime of the Dail.
So I am basically saying that I think that a new FF lead government might well not last 5 years. Of course my predictions on the election results were pretty off the mark so I will hold my hands up and admit my credibility on this might be viewed by some as being weak.
Was this 'the' local general election?
I will post more on this, but it occurs to me that in many ways this was a very local general election.
Friday, May 25, 2007
Minor moments of the election - part 1
1) Seeing SF outpoll the PDs in Dublin North.
2) Seeing RockofCashel being excluded from the 3rd count.
By moments, I don't necessarily mean moments of delight (though the first one certainly was) more that they are moments that will stick in my memory.
2) Seeing RockofCashel being excluded from the 3rd count.
By moments, I don't necessarily mean moments of delight (though the first one certainly was) more that they are moments that will stick in my memory.
Are we all focused on the wrong debate as the turning point of the election?
Given the substantial increase in the FG vote and seat return from that vote and the disappointing performance of the smaller parties, might it be that it wasn't the Leader's Debate part 2 with Bertie and Enda that was the turning point of the election but rather the part 1 version with Pat, Gerry, Michael and Trevor.
Just my initial thoughts.
Just my initial thoughts.
Dude, was I ever wrong!
That's all I'm saying for now, I'm going to head over to some mates and rehash the whole thing and watch how it unfolds.
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Election predictions - the whole shebang
I did the old election prediction thing a while back and I think I'm going to revise it here.
| Constituency | Seats | Result of 2002 election | kingkane's Prediction | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlow Kilkenny | 5 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 Green: 1 I think that the two Labour candidates are too weak and transfers won't be tight enough to get them the seat especially when geography comes into play. | ||
| Cavan Monaghan | 4 |
| FF: 1 FG: 2 SF: 1 Connolly has been a failure on the hospital and Conlon was selected much too late. | ||
| Clare | 4 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 FG will deny the various FF's the chance to move outside their areas and gain votes. Indo Breen to be squeezed as people want a government. | ||
| Cork East | 4 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 It seems to be forgotten that Sherlock Snr. used to struggle at one for a his seat. Also SF will eat into that vote a bit. So FG to gain in the end. | ||
| Cork North Central | 4 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 The entry of McCarthy has opened this open .FG should actually sneak it now but more likely it will stay the same | ||
| Cork North West | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 2 I think the vote management for FF is going to be truly terrible and that will cost them the seat. | ||
| Cork South Central | 5 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 Green: 1 Martin won't have the surplus to save Dennehy this time. | ||
| Cork South West | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 2 FF are content to lose this one as they know O'Donovan could be the sole TD going for reelection in 2012 | ||
| Donegal North East | 3 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 Blaney to lose out and I'm coming round to the idea that SF might gain here too. | ||
| Donegal South West | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 SF: 1 The Cope to lose out. | ||
| Dublin Central | 4 |
| FF: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1 Others: 1 FF have made a right mess of this. If they had run just Mary Fitz , they would have held it. | ||
| Dublin Mid West | 4 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1 I've changed my mind and now think that Harney's absent landlord bit is going to tell for her in the end. | ||
| Dublin North | 4 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 SP: 1 Green: 1 I now think that Daly will take it. Labour should have found someone younger and earlier to replace Ryan. | ||
| Dublin North Central | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Green: 1 | ||
| Dublin North East | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 | ||
| Dublin North West | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 SF: 1 I think that SF will eat into Labour enough that Tormey could get ahead of Shortall. | ||
| Dublin South | 5 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 Green: 1 Sorry, Liz too inactive and lassiez faire about the whole thing | ||
| Dublin South Central | 5 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 2 SF: 1 | ||
| Dublin South East | 4 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1 | ||
| Dublin South West | 4 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 SF: 1 Lenihan to lose out. | ||
| Dublin West | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Others: 1 | ||
| Dun Laoghaire | 5 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1 On a really bad day for FF, Andrews could be at risk. But should just hold on. | ||
| Galway East | 4 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 | ||
| Galway West | 5 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1 | ||
| Kerry North | 3 |
| FG: 1 Lab: 1 SF: 1 | ||
| Kerry South | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 | ||
| Kildare North | 4 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Others: 1 | ||
| Kildare South | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 | ||
| Laois Offaly | 5 |
| FF: 3 FG: 2 No more Parlon country | ||
| Limerick East | 5 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 Lab: 1 | ||
| Limerick West | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 2 Brennan and Nix to swing it for FG. | ||
| Longford Westmeath | 4 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 | ||
| Louth | 4 |
| FF: 1 FG: 2 SF: 1 | ||
| Mayo | 5 |
| FF: 1 FG: 3 Others: 1 Cowley will hang on due to transfers from SF, Lab and Greens. That gets him ahead of Bev. | ||
| Meath East | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 | ||
| Meath West | 3 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 | ||
| Roscommon Leitrim South | 3 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 | ||
| Sligo Leitrim North | 3 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 | ||
| Tipperay North | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Others: 1 | ||
| Tipperay South | 3 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Others: 1 | ||
| Waterford | 4 |
| FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 | ||
| Wexford | 5 |
| FF: 2 FG: 2 Lab: 1 | ||
| Wicklow | 5 |
| FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 2 Green: 1 |
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Election snippets.
Got handed a "Central News" this morning, for a moment I thought the Flash might wheeze by too. In actuality it turned out to be a Fianna Fail newsheet.
Curious thing is there no moment of Mary Fitzpatrick while there are two pictures of Cyprian Brady. The rest is pure Bertie. I have to wonder what Mary Fitzpatrick did to ould Bertie. I've seen her and Cyprian on the box, and she is head and shoulders above him, to be quite honest with you.
And I thought there was some GAA rule about staying out of politics, there are two clubs featured in this particular freesheet. I recall some GAA diktat a month or two back involving a SF candidate somewhere.
Shane McEntee posters are along the North Circular road/New Cabra road. Not as far afield as those of Michael D. Higgins I guess.
Ivor Callely is making a last minute conversion to being a yellow belly supporter, with loads of posters. None which contain the relevant contact details as per the electoral act.
Curious thing is there no moment of Mary Fitzpatrick while there are two pictures of Cyprian Brady. The rest is pure Bertie. I have to wonder what Mary Fitzpatrick did to ould Bertie. I've seen her and Cyprian on the box, and she is head and shoulders above him, to be quite honest with you.
And I thought there was some GAA rule about staying out of politics, there are two clubs featured in this particular freesheet. I recall some GAA diktat a month or two back involving a SF candidate somewhere.
Shane McEntee posters are along the North Circular road/New Cabra road. Not as far afield as those of Michael D. Higgins I guess.
Ivor Callely is making a last minute conversion to being a yellow belly supporter, with loads of posters. None which contain the relevant contact details as per the electoral act.
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