Saturday, May 26, 2007

How to go about forming an FG lead government.

I know most people will think this belongs in the realm of pure fantasy, but at this point in time we are looking at FG 51 + Lab 20 + Grn 6 = 77

If the PDs decide they have no future as a party then moves should be made to do the following
  • Elect Mary Harney as Ceann Comhairle, on the proviso that she would step down in advance of the next election allowing Tony Gregory to be elected as Ceann Comhairle securing his support. It would appear that Mary Harney does not wish to be leader of a party that requires considerable rebuilding and also that she was always planning on leaving the Oireachtas at the end of this the 30th Dail.
  • Get Noel Grealish to join FG with the certainty of being an FG candidate for Galway West next time.
  • Do a deal with Jackie Healy Rae which includes making one of his sons a Taoiseach's nominee for the Seanad giving him the profile to succeed Jackie next time out.
  • Sort out some packages that would satisfy McGrath and Lowry over the lifetime of the government.
That would give FG 52 + Lab 20 + Grn 6 = 78 + TG1 + ML1 + BF1 + JHR1 +FMcG = 83

I would agree that this at this point in time might not seem the most likely of outcomes but those measures should be explored because while they might not result in a government lead by FG this year we may yet see one in the next 2/3 years.

Bev may have to step down inside the next 12 months if the RTe suit for bankruptcy is successful. This would result in a bye election that FG might well win if it were to happen when such a result would lead to a Mayo Taoiseach.

It is noteworthy that while the last few Dails have had no bye elections due to members passing away that some such as Jackie Healy Rae, Mary O'Rourke and Michael Woods are, as the sayings goes, getting on in years indeed all three are over 70 at this point. That is not something I'm exactly wishing for but we need to be realistic about the possibilities that might arise during the lifetime of the Dail.

So I am basically saying that I think that a new FF lead government might well not last 5 years. Of course my predictions on the election results were pretty off the mark so I will hold my hands up and admit my credibility on this might be viewed by some as being weak.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Daniel , Jackie's mother lived well into her 90's so don't worry about Jackie please!