| Constituency | Seats | Result of 2002 election | kingkane's Prediction |
|---|
| Carlow Kilkenny | 5 | | FF: 2 FG: 2 Green: 1
I think that the two Labour candidates are too weak and transfers won't be tight enough to get them the seat especially when geography comes into play.
|
| Cavan Monaghan | 4 | | FF 2, FG 1, SF 1, Ind 1. | | Rory O`Hanlon FF will be returned as Ceann Comhairle, making this a 4-seater. | | FF: 1 FG: 2 SF: 1
Connolly has been a failure on the hospital and Conlon was selected much too late.
|
| Clare | 4 | | FF: 2 FG: 2
FG will deny the various FF's the chance to move outside their areas and gain votes. Indo Breen to be squeezed as people want a government.
|
| Cork East | 4 | | FF: 2 FG: 2
It seems to be forgotten that Sherlock Snr. used to struggle at one for a his seat. Also SF will eat into that vote a bit. So FG to gain in the end.
|
| Cork North Central | 4 | | FF 3, FG 1, Lab 1 | | Was 5 seats. | | FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1
The entry of McCarthy has opened this open .FG should actually sneak it now but more likely it will stay the same
|
| Cork North West | 3 | | FF: 1 FG: 2
I think the vote management for FF is going to be truly terrible and that will cost them the seat.
|
| Cork South Central | 5 | | FF: 2 FG: 2 Green: 1
Martin won't have the surplus to save Dennehy this time.
|
| Cork South West | 3 | | FF: 1 FG: 2
FF are content to lose this one as they know O'Donovan could be the sole TD going for reelection in 2012
|
| Donegal North East | 3 | | FF 2, Ind 1. | | Niall Blaney (Ind) later joined FF. | | FF: 2 FG: 1
Blaney to lose out and I'm coming round to the idea that SF might gain here too.
|
| Donegal South West | 3 | | FF: 1 FG: 1 SF: 1
The Cope to lose out.
|
| Dublin Central | 4 | | FF: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1 Others: 1
FF have made a right mess of this. If they had run just Mary Fitz , they would have held it.
|
| Dublin Mid West | 4 | | FF 1, PD 1, Green 1 | | Was 3 seats. | | FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1
I've changed my mind and now think that Harney's absent landlord bit is going to tell for her in the end.
|
| Dublin North | 4 | | FF: 1 FG: 1 SP: 1 Green: 1
I now think that Daly will take it. Labour should have found someone younger and earlier to replace Ryan.
|
| Dublin North Central | 3 | | FF 2, FG 1, Ind 1 | | Was 4 seats. | | FF: 1 FG: 1 Green: 1 |
| Dublin North East | 3 | | FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1
|
| Dublin North West | 3 | | FF: 1 FG: 1 SF: 1
I think that SF will eat into Labour enough that Tormey could get ahead of Shortall.
|
| Dublin South | 5 | | FF 2, FG 1, PD 1, Green 1 |
| | FF: 2 FG: 2 Green: 1
Sorry, Liz too inactive and lassiez faire about the whole thing
|
| Dublin South Central | 5 | | FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 2 SF: 1 |
| Dublin South East | 4 | | FF 1, Lab 1, PD 1, Green 1 |
| | FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1 |
| Dublin South West | 4 | | FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 SF: 1
Lenihan to lose out.
|
| Dublin West | 3 | | FF: 1 FG: 1 Others: 1 |
| Dun Laoghaire | 5 | | FF 2, Lab 1, PD 1, Green 1 |
| | FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1
On a really bad day for FF, Andrews could be at risk. But should just hold on.
|
| Galway East | 4 | | FF: 2 FG: 2 |
| Galway West | 5 | | FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1 |
| Kerry North | 3 | | FG: 1 Lab: 1 SF: 1 |
| Kerry South | 3 | | FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 |
| Kildare North | 4 | | FF 1, FG 1, Lab 1 | | Was 3 seats. By-election 2005 replaced FF with Ind. | | FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Others: 1 |
| Kildare South | 3 | | FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 |
| Laois Offaly | 5 | | FF: 3 FG: 2
No more Parlon country
|
| Limerick East | 5 | | FF: 2 FG: 2 Lab: 1 |
| Limerick West | 3 | | FF: 1 FG: 2
Brennan and Nix to swing it for FG.
|
| Longford Westmeath | 4 | | New constituency. | | 2002 results for Westmeath: FF 1, FG 1, Lab 1. | | FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 |
| Louth | 4 | | FF: 1 FG: 2 SF: 1 |
| Mayo | 5 | | FF 2, FG 2, Ind 1 | | Beverly Flynn (FF) later became Ind | | FF: 1 FG: 3 Others: 1
Cowley will hang on due to transfers from SF, Lab and Greens. That gets him ahead of Bev.
|
| Meath East | 3 | | New constituency | | 2002 results for Meath: FF 3, FG 2. By-election 2005 replaced FG with FG. | | FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 |
| Meath West | 3 | | New constituency | | 2002 results for Meath: FF 3, FG 2. By-election 2005 replaced FG with FG. | | FF: 2 FG: 1 |
| Roscommon Leitrim South | 3 | | New constituency | | 2002 result for Longford Roscommon: FF 2, FG 1, PD 1. | | FF: 2 FG: 1 |
| Sligo Leitrim North | 3 | | New constituency | | 2002 result for Sligo Leitrim: FF 2, FG 1, Ind 1. | | FF: 2 FG: 1 |
| Tipperay North | 3 | | FF: 1 FG: 1 Others: 1 |
| Tipperay South | 3 | | FF: 1 FG: 1 Others: 1 |
| Waterford | 4 | | FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 |
| Wexford | 5 | | FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1, Ind 1 | | Liam Twomey (Ind) later joined FG. | | FF: 2 FG: 2 Lab: 1 |
| Wicklow | 5 | | FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 2 Green: 1 |
1 Comments:
I get FF 61 and FG 57, and am too lazy to count the others.
Thats on the optimistic opposition side for both figures.
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