Mayoral predictions - how did we do?

The actual result in London Mayoral Election

Johnson	CON	1,043,761	42.48
Livingstone	LAB	893,877	36.38
Paddick	LD	236,685	9.63
Berry	GRN	77,374	3.15
Barnbrook	BNP	69,710	2.84
Craig	CPA	39,249	1.6
Batten	UKIP	22,422	0.91
German	LL	16,796	0.68
O'Connor	END	10,695	0.44
McKenzie	IND	5,389	0.22

Our prediction had Boris Johnson on 39 % Ken Livingstone on 37 %, which was reasonably close, within the margin of error for Boris at the worst. We did overstate Paddick on 14 % and Berry at just under 5 %. We were damn close with the BNP at 2.5 % (and that's as close as we ever want to be to the BNP. And we understated the others at 1.5 % when they closer to 4%.

New Carlsberg ad - Have it!

I never did find out what happened to my application for the Ireland job but here is what some others are doing about it.



They really do like to play with a big pair up front.

Local Elections England/Wales - how bad?

Really bad, really, really bad. The beeb are still insisting on going more and more down the road graphically orientated tom foolery with Jeremy Vine when what they really need are Charlie McCreevy and Ivan Yates arguing over the direction of the transfers of the Ballydehob local bigwig on the anti fish scale tax party.

One problem for me is that they only report seats gains and losses not the % that a party got in which council area. With 1st past the post it is possible that a disaster decline can be masked or that a minor gain can translate into a large seat gain. The national vote share projection is some help but for the really nerdy amongst us (I'm saying us so I must be including myself in that number) we want to see how the % vote has changed in each council. And nowhere on the beeb site can I find that. And they appear to be completely at a loss as to how to report on the Mayoral count with the only semi useful quote being "With 27% of votes counted in each of the 14 electoral areas - Mr Johnson has the lead in 9 while Labour's Ken Livingstone is ahead in five." how big are the 9 areas compared to the 5 and ahead by what margin! God help me but with a few dozen Tallymen we'd have a projected first count at this stage on 27% of the vote counted, and we'd have some idea where the 2nd choices were going. And this in the birthplace of parliamentary democracy.

Update: according to the Guardian blog there are screens at the count centres that are giving the 1st preferences and 2nd choices as they are counted. So why is no one reporting the actual numbers? Do they think people can't understand them?

Boris the blade or Red Ken

While I'm technically a Croydonian by way of being a Mayday baby, I do on occasion social climb a tad by regarding myself as a Londoner by association. So by that reckoning I'm as entitled as anyone to be taking an interest in the mayoral election across the pond.

I would probably vote for Brian Paddick or Sian Berry No.1 and then give my No.2 to Ken Livingstone. I don't agree entirely with everything Ken does but the city is in his heart. I think he has been proved correct about efforts like the limitations of the Public Private Partnerships in funding public works and also he has shown a willingness to embrace some aspects of the market like the idea of a bond issue for the Tube. Boris is a likeable enough bloke and would probably make for good company on a night out but that is no reason for vote for someone to have executive power, whether Boris or Bertie.

We seem to get few enough people who are proud of living in cities these days. For all our love of the arboreal or pastoral ideal, I think cities, properly run are the true apex of human civilisation. It's not a popular view in the modern world and especially not in Ireland where everyone appears to want to live in the subrural splendour of the detached bungalow on the edgetown.

My Predictions? I've not had a good hit rate this year but sure why not...

Boris Johnson - 39 %

Ken Livingstone - 37 %

Paddick - 14 %

Berry just under - 5 %

BNP - 2.5 %

Others 1.5 %

At the end of the chain

With the building industry apparently stalling it is worth noting who it that is going to get hit hardest. It will be those small contractors and suppliers who are owed what are for them quite large sums of money. Loads of tradesmen, the plumbers, the carpenters, the landscapers the ones doing plastering and gangs of labourers will be left out of pocket at the last minute. You can bet it won't be Tom Parlon's boys at the CIF. God no Those lads will simply go to the wall, let the banks and by extension the savers at those institutions take the hit and be back in business a few weeks later with another name and the same faces in places.

The Examiner today appears to link financial problems in the business of Dermot Flood with the deaths of the family. Whether there is a link or not - the article and the details of the turnover and outstanding monies owed to the business is illustrative of the problems that many at the end of the chain are faced with. According to what they found the accounts showed money owed to creditors increased from €27,660 in 2006 to €49,421 in 2007. And over the same period, the amount owed to the company by debtors nearly trebled from €40,111 to €118,202. Owed by debtors, that would be people he did work for, they owed him more than twice what his own debts were. If this was a factor in his actions (and it seems at this stage that the deaths were as a result of his actions) then I wonder what part concerns about money had to play in his state of mind leading up to this. Where is Tom Parlon to talk on behalf of the small traders and ensuring they are getting paid by the big boys in the building industry today?

Another week to go

A last minute (ok it was in the last 5 minutes) goal sent us down to a defeat against Hull. That said with Ipswich and Wolves drawing it means we retain our sixth place and the final play-off slot going into the last game of the season. At home to Burnley. If we make the play-off I think we have a reasonable chance against any of the likely opposition.

In other news, I see that Eamon Ryan minister for communications and de facto supremo of An Post is upping his harassment campaign of his stalkers. Next we'll be hearing that he has set up a facebook group targeting some poor divil and is opening and reading their mail.