Sunday, May 27, 2007

Where could Labour have won?

Reflecting on Tommy Broughan comments and those of others whether in the meeja or the Labour party about the Rabbitte - Labour Strategy got me thinking about where the party could actually have won if they had pursued a more independent path and if as a consequence their % had been up.

In essence that would mean taking votes from FF candidates that would have come from those that would have wanted Bertie as Taoiseach. After all those that wanted Enda would be less inclined to vote for a more neutral Labour.

Kerry South - the key factor here I would reckon was Moynihan-Cronin's decision to retire and then come back. While she was out of the picture others were knocking on doors and saying "vote for me", it is hard to make up that gap once others have gotten the political mind share in a locality.

Meath East - This is a kind of split in that the FG vote seems to have been up too. Was Byrne's vote down to geography? Strange thing is that Fitzgerald's votes did not particularly go anywhere. They just sort of drifted off in various directions.

Dublin South Central - the problem for the Labour party here is the variety of left options who to be honest do not think much of Bertie or Enda. Here people have a choice between the left, the hard left, the far left and the "we're so left we must be right" people.

Wicklow - well, the FG vote was up too so it could be argued that had the Labour party been even more anti FF that they might have secured that vote instead of it going to FG. It has to be said that Nicky Kelly's more recent brushes with the law in relation to driving issues can't have helped.

Tipperary North - more of a problem with the same old face I'm not so sure the locals are all that crazy about the self help crowd O'Meara is involved with.

Dublin North - again another old face though this time the brother. If they had gone for some new in Dublin North instead of the Ryan's regarding it as a fiefdom.

In essence Labour could have been 2/3% higher nationally and not won anymore seats (bar Hannigan I reckon) unless the candidate selection issues about were addressed. In all bar one of these seats it was old familiar faces, perhaps too familiar faces that were running.

So, I think the problem for Labour wasn't the accord it was the failure to prevent FF getting votes instead of Labour's failure to get them.

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