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Monday, December 31, 2007

US primary predictions - Democrats

Democrats:

I think Iowa won’t decide anything for certain for the Democrats other than confirming that all the big three could win the nomination. (Now how is that for a hostage to fortune?) Clinton is still the favourite at this point for Iowa and the nomination but so was Dean four years and just look at what that got him. What the democrats have learned from the 1988 election is that they have to pick someone who will reach outside their base and honestly Clinton doesn’t do that. The other odd thing about American politics is the boredom factor, people are to some extent bored with the coverage of Clinton and Obama, if Edwards can get come out of Iowa as the little candidate that could and if Obama wins New Hampshire and South Carolina then Clinton

If Edwards is over 20% in Iowa (before the divvying up of the remainder votes) he is still well at the races, if Hillary is under 30% then it proves she can be caught nationally and the post vote writing will be about how vulnerable she is looking and if Obama goes over 30% on the first count and wins then he is going to get the Big Mo’ into New Hampshire. However, I don’t think Obama will win Iowa because I think he lacks the organisation comparatively speaking of Clinton and Edwards in turns of getting people out to vote. And getting people to come out is the problem that did for Dean in the end.

My prediction for Iowa before the departure of the non-viable is

Clinton 27% Obama 26% Edwards 24% Richardson 6% Biden 4% Dodd 1% Kucinich 1%

After those under 15% are eliminated I think Edward wins and Clinton finishes 3rd.

Edwards/Obama

People might well ask could Obama go on the ticket as VP if Oprah has come out for him. Clinton as nominee running against McCain/Huckabee would be Godsend to the Republicans as they don’t have to do anything much after that to motivate the religious conservatives to come out and vote, McCain/Huckabee against an Edwards/Obama ticket would look old and cranky.

Again Clinton will win Michigan but with Obama a very close 2nd and Edwards not a million miles away) he might be a few thousand miles off)


January 3, 2008 Iowa[7] caucus 29 10 6 45 11 56

Edwards to win, Obama 2nd

January 8, 2008 New Hampshire primary[8][9] 14 5 3 22 8 30

Obama to win, Clinton 2nd, Edwards get over 20%

January 15, 2008 Michigan primary 83 28 17 128 29 157 [0]

Again Clinton will win Michigan but with Obama a very close 2nd and Edwards not a million miles away) he might be a few thousand miles off)

January 19, 2008 Nevada caucus[10] 16 6 3 25 8 33

Clinton wins but Edwards out shades Obama for a distantish 2nd.

January 26, 2008 South Carolina primary[11] 29 10 6 45 9 54

Obama wins South Carolina, Edwards does better than expected but Clinton is a close 2nd to Obama.

January 29, 2008 Florida primary 121 40 24 185 25 210 [0]

I think that Obama has a lower ceiling in Florida than Edwards and if Clinton weakens Edwards might be the one to benefit most. I would still expect Clinton to win Florida.

3 comments:

Frank said...

Dear Mr. Sullivan,
Do you not know that Michigan doesn't count in this primary session or was it a honest mistake?

If Hillary couldn't win Iowa, NH, or SC, she's finished.
Because when you remove inevitability from Hillary, people don't like her anyway.

Dan Sullivan said...

Michigan doesn't get any delegates but there again neither does Florida, (for those watching at home, it's because they were naughty and moved their dates up against the wishes of the DNC).

So while neither get any delegates per se (and there is a belief that they will be allowed delegates to attend the convention after the nominee has been selected of course that presumes that there is a certainty of who the nominee is before the convention) they do get to shape the campaign leading up to SD Tuesday.

Chris said...

Dan-

What is your reasoning behind having Clinton beat out Edwards in South Carolina? Dont you think Edwards has a chance to pull it off?