Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Voting on Lisbon - update 1

After the weekend that was in it, the comments from Brian Cowen, and the mood music coming from the IFA, I would judge that the No vote has breached the 40% barrier and then some, I would even put it as high as 43%. Why?

Well, Cowen has probably with a single comment made a percentage of people from an Fine Gael inclined background decide that they can't be bothered to come out and vote for what they now see as his effing Treaty. It's not a very sensible attitude but it is entirely understandable. This may back to more difficult to

The IFA seem to be itchy for a fight and could talk themselves into a corner that they could only be got out of by Cowen going 12 rounds with Mandelsohn live on telly.

I would rate the Yes vote at 55% and the remainder spoiled - we're going to see a quare amount of spoiled votes in my humble opinion, over 2%.

1 comment:

FutureTaoiseach said...

I estimate the Yes vote at 40%+ and the no vote at 50%+. Canvassers are getting negative vibes on the doorsteps judging by press coverage. The bad weather will suppress turnout like in 2001 and that helps the no side who are more likely to vote. I also believe the prospect of being asked to foist something on the French and Dutch people that they do not want leaves a bad taste in most people's mouths.