Thursday, February 12, 2009

Time for Labour/FG to talk to John Gormley directly and cut a deal

By now most people have seen the results of the opinion poll from the MRBI published in the Irish Times. Moving beyond the mere numbers, it is clear that the government does not have the support of the public to act. It is time for someone from FG and Labour to approach John Gormley and if necessary cut a deal that would allow them to go softly, softly on the majority of the existing Green seats.

The problem for the Greens in the next election whenever it comes will not be whether they get 4% or 7% nationally but whether or not they get transfers. And if there are any Green candidates out there reading this who are thinking that FF transfers will see them home, either in the general election or more immediately in the upcoming local elections, then they need to wake up and smell the stale coffee of the FF core vote. It simply won't come to their rescue. If they really value their policy agenda, their seats and the long term viablity of their party then they should withdraw now from a goverment that no one explicitly voted for and which now utterly lacks the mandate to act as a government need to given the difficulties we are faced with.

If you did happen to miss them then these are the adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Times poll in November are: Fianna Fáil, 22 per cent (down 5 points); Fine Gael, 32 per cent (down 2 points); Labour, 24 per cent (up 10 point); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (up 1 point); Green Party, 4 per cent (no change); and Independents/others, 9 per cent (down 4 points).


Green Ink said...

Why do you think the Greens will be depending on FF transfers?

Dan Sullivan said...

No Green TD was elected without the help of transfers. In most cases from those parties that are now opposed to them. FF will run a tight electoral ship and simply won't have spare candidates available to provide transfers to Green candidates. Nor are FF likely to have big surpluses, irrespective of the polls, FF view big surplus as dangers as they could mean votes moving outside the party. They prefere the situation as it pertained in Louth where Ahern and Kirk finished within a whisker of each other. Those FF votes will either elect someone or be locked into the last person standing not to be elected. That is what I meant by it won't come to their rescue. And next time those voting for Labour, FG, SF and others won't transfer to the same extent either.

Ciaran Cuffe was elected o nthe basis of transfers from Eugene Regan and Sean Barrett (FG)

Mary White owes her election to significant;y more transfers from Labour than the FG candidate received and a surplus from the 3rd elected FF TD.

Gogarty pulled away from Frances Fitzgerald on the basis of transfers from SF and and Independent.

Green Ink said...

Yeah but just because they're in opposition doesn't mean that there's suddenly going to be a deluge of FF transfers. It all hinges on the public mindset towards the Greens- I really don't think the anger towards FF is going to hit GP in the way it might have the PDs. FG, Labour, SF and Inds will still transfer strongly I'd say. Unless of course most people stop after the first preference, which is a real possibility.