Dublin South bye-election - Part 2

This could be the PDs Bootle byelection, if Fiona O'Malley runs (and she simply has to given that she announced she was targeting this constituency once DL went to 4 seats; she can't choose to nor run now in a constituency where they had a seat up to the last election and then try to run in the next general election) and if she gets considerably less than what Liz O'Donnell got - say under 5% - then the party would have some cause to simply wind itself up much as the SDP had to do after coming in behind the Monster Raving Loony Party.

The PDs must be spitting

It is only a minor outcome of the referendum but the Progressive Democrats must be spitting that they didn't go with the No argument. There again the YES side might have won then.

Ciaran Cannon elected leader of PDs but how?

Congratulations to Ciaran Cannon on a personal level but asking the obvious question but how did the votes really play out? Because that is what will determine if the party unites behind him or goes its separate ways. I acknowledge that I'm guessing here but if I'm wrong about one area then it has a knock on for the others.

Baseline information that we know at this stage.
Oireachtas members 40% - I think we're guessing a 2:2 split here
Cllrs and senior figures 30% - we were told that the cllr were breaking for Cannon 2:1
Party members 30% which would imply the membership broke for O'Malley 2:1

Alternative scenarios
Alternative A
Change in the Oireachtas members 40% - I can't see Grealish or Cannon voting for anyone other than Cannon so the only other possible outcome here is 3:1 for Cannon with Harney supporting him. Which means that O'Malley just have won both the membership and cllrs vote by almost 2:1 to come as close as she did. Which would be a major turn up and a problem for the party if those lower in the political pyramid on whom the party depends had chosen one person but it was undone by the sitting leader and minister. I would rate this option as unlikely.

Alternative B
Oireachtas members 40% - I think we're guessing a 2:2 split here
Cllrs and senior figures 30% - we were told that the cllrs etc were breaking for Cannon 2:1, but maybe that didn't happen as was suggested and he just won convincingly more here than O'Malley did, but not 2:1. However -
Party members 30% - that still implies O'Malley won almost equally more of the membership. And they are the ones relied on canvass leaflet drop etc, will those that supported O'Malley come out if they suspect that their cllr went the other way?

B is the more likely scenario in my view

Alternative C
Oireachtas members 40% - I think we're guessing a 2:2 split here
Cllrs and senior figures 30% - we were told that the cllrs were breaking for Cannon 2:1, but maybe that didn't happen as was suggested and in fact was a very even split.
Party members 30% and that means we almost have to have a very even split in the membership.

C is a less likely scenario in my view than B but marginally so.

Alternative D
Oireachtas members 40% - I think we're guessing a 2:2 split here
Cllrs and senior figures 30% - we were told that the cllrs were breaking for Cannon 2:1, but maybe that didn't happen as was suggested and in fact it was all nonsense and O'Malley romped home amongst the cllrs etc. Some of whom may now decide the jig is up and depart the scene between now and 2009 locals
Party members 30% but that means that Cannon won the membership convincingly. And that if cllrs depart he has eager members ready to enter the battle next year.

Alternative D is the most hopeful one for the PDs but it seems bar far the the most unlikely.

I'm open to people giving alternative options but can they relate them to how the numbers played out in the electoral colleges?