All about the Budget numbers

As the budget numbers fall apart, the media seems to still be buying the line that everything is on track. See the problem with the budget has always been that anyone can add 2+2 and get 4, it's ensuring that 2 is in fact going to be there that is the problem.

Cowen had 20,000 net jobs for 2008, the Central Bank last week said 16,000

Cowen had growth of 3%, the predictions are now ESRI 2.4% Central Bank agrees with the minster .

House prices which according to those in the market would at worst be stagnant dropped 7% last year and now they're saying a drop of 5% (does that translate to a 12% drop? ) the problem is of course not alone one for first time buyers who paid over the odds in 2005/2006 but those who traded up and took on significantly larger mortgages along with the parents of the first time buyers who either guarantor on the mortgages or perhaps took out loans themselves to provide them with deposits. The problem will be that they may come to be much less willing to spend and if so that directly impacts on the service industry.

All this at the very beginning of the year, how much worse could it all become?

http://dansullivan.blogspot.com/2007/12/2007-fudget.html

Again we have to wonder how real the numbers coming from the department of finance were back in Spring 2007.

• GDP will increase by 3 per cent in real terms;
• 24,000 new jobs will be created with the total number at work increasing by a little over 1 per cent;
• Inflation will ease and the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices will average 2.4 per cent

Best blog posts of 2007 - my eye

I was thinking about some of the posts that have been nominated for best post for the Irish blog awards and it struck me that they might suffer from that old Oscar problem of forgetting about anything decent that came out before the summer block busters. So I did some rudimentary analysis and what do you know? Bingo.

Out of 72 posts nominated we have the following run down.

Dec 17
Nov 12
Oct 8
September 4
August 6
July 5
June 2
May 3
April 3
March 4
Feb 0
Jan 0

Plus Jan of 2008 has 7 nominations! I accept that there was no announcement of a specific cut off date but I'm sure some thought the end of 2007 was a natural enough one, while others didn't. Some clarity wouldn't have gone amiss there. So the lesson is to save your good posts for the end of the year and not be writing worthwhile post throughout. As the awards evolve I can see the following coming out from the PR set "Well the comedy stuff sells but never wins awards so Twenty has the real funny stuff penciled in for the early part of the year but he's got much more pointed material ready to go for the end of year nomination season."

More peculiar are the two posts that are from 2006. Or least they appear to be to me, see for yourself. 23 September 2006 and August 18th 2006 I could be wrong. Let me know if I am. They're good post, don't get me wrong but if we can't nominate Twenty's election preview from Jan of last year (which was up for the long list but didn't make the short list) then why would 2 posts for 2006 be deemed for eligible for 2008 awards?

Sadly, I would say based on this that there is a more than fair chance that many of the posts nominated are not even the best posts the individual bloggers have done this year not to mind the best posts of the whole year overall. It was talked about last year at the awards ceremony that for Best Post the idea might be to have a rolling nomination process for each month so that any posts folks thought were quite good at the time might be flagged. Even a dead mail drop box type of effort wouldn't have been that hard to set up, but I guess it fell on deaf ears or worse yet it never fell on any ears at all because people were scared off from making the suggestion directly to the powers that be in case they were banished.

Of course the instinctive response from some will be to say that there is a lot of work involved and he does his best. Yet if someone chooses to bring a load of work upon themselves simply because they don't want to let anyone else to play a part isn't that just indulging someone's martyrdom complex? There were 2000 nominations last year with somewhat closer to 700/800 this year or so we're told. Does this mean blogging in Ireland is better, smaller, more of a clique than it was, or just a passing fad? Who knows. I wish all those involved and nominated the best but of all the categories Best Post is probably the most valueless this year which is a real shame.

Update: I've attempted to point out the 2006 posts but any comments from me are just modded out from the awards.ie site.

I was in a fight: a man died

The Late Alderman Micheal Kelly of Limerick had a form of words to deal with questions about his criminal past in particular one incident he was involved in. They were "I was in a fight, a man died".

They were words of such pure ambiguity that only a natural born politician could have arrived at them. There was no admission, just the merest hint that his involvement in the fight had caused the man's death. I'm quite sure that the most natural born politician of his generation currently holding the office of Taoiseach will allow some version of them to grace his lips in coming days, perhaps "I received money, a decision was made." Certainly, there will be no admission of anything so base as bribery.

Certainly the phrase would want to be better than this. “It is not correct. If I said so I wasn’t correct. I can’t recall if I did say it, but if I did not say, or if I did say it, I didn’t mean to say it — that these issues could not be dealt with until the end of the Mahon Tribunal." Bertie Ahern in a statement to the Dail Jan 30th 2008

Libel or fair comment - you decide.

Now, I'm pretty used at this stage to my comments being removed, altered, even directed to spam sites by the grand poobah but claiming a mild attempted rib tickler of a comment based on current events involving a public voting process might be libelous is a bit of a stretch.

Below is the original comment complete with the misspelling of "mislaid" as "misled" which was made in the context of the recent problems RTe had with You're A Star and losing votes. The grand poobah has been doing some part-time tech support on RTe recently and he has also commenting publicly about the You're a Star mislaid votes problem on his twitter account hence the references. So, I'd reckon the comment was solidly on the side of non-libelous. Also, given that only Rte and another site are the only entities identified I'm not sure who'd be doing the suing as the publisher would have to be sued, which it would appear might involve someone suing themselves. Or was it all intended to deliberately suggest libelous comment where none actually existed with the intent of lower the public's opinion of the poster? Now what would be the legal term for that?



and here is the altered one suggesting the text above was libelous.



It's all kind of petty really when you consider the source. What can we all expect next altering the comments of contributers so that they are libelous?

Hillary claims victory in Florida

Bold boy that I am I'm signed up to a number of US political mailing lists and I've just got one in from Senator Clinton entitled Victory in Florida. How I would ask if none of the Democrats were campaigning in Florida can last night's result be deemed a victory?

Dear Daniel,

I know I told you our campaign journey would be filled with high-stakes twists and turns. But I never knew it would be quite as dramatic as this. And last night we celebrated another big moment in this campaign with our resounding victory in Florida.

Florida Primaries

I reckon Hillary and Obama run away with the Democratic one not that it is worth much at this stage though that could change if the convention close. Edwards might still get up to 18% or so. Clinton gets 46% and 36% for Obama.

I have this feeling that Romney might surprise us by being closer to McCain than the most recent polls indicate,
McCain 31%
Romney 29%
Guiliani is going to be a clearer 3rd than would be the casemainly because of early voting. Just under 20%
Huckabee 13%
Ron Paul gets 7%

A evening watching the Palace

I was quite surprised today to see a preview mail about Palace playing Leicester. Suddenly it dawned on me that the match was on this evening and after confirming that the match was on the box I was able to settle down to some work content in the knowledge that I would have a ready distraction later in the evening.

Sadly the game wasn't up to much in terms of quality. It was a slogfest throughout and the pitch was so poor the Leicester Tigers Rugby team would have had second thoughts about playing on it. I could honestly swear to you that towards the end there were a couple of trenches out there. I would say it was like the Somme only Kevin Myers is from Leicester and I know he'd make a column out of it. One of the few highlights for me was seeing Sean Scannell get a run out.

To make matters worse Leicester scored a poxy goal in the dying minutes by means of Barry Hayles making contact with the ball in manner that he won't have taken any pride in.

It's a bit like a film

From today's Examiner - "Meanwhile, Ms Harney insisted that she trusted the Taoiseach in light of an opinion poll showing that a majority of people did not believe his evidence to the Mahon Tribunal.

“It’s a bit like a film — you don’t judge it halfway through,” she said as she urged people to wait for the inquiry’s final report into the Taoiseach’s tangled personal fiances.

Ms Harney expressed disappointment that the tribunal had taken so long to proceed with its work, but pointed out this was partly due to the many legal challenges taken against it."

Really Mary, is it like that is it? Certainly, if the director has a track record of producing challenging but interesting work you're inclined to give it that bit more of a chance. There again there are those films that you know pretty quickly that they're complete rubbish. Like Eragon which my housemate had plussed the other night and which got the eye over last night. It is ripe, ripe that is for the Mystery Science Theatre 3000 treatment.

Bertie is much more Uwe Boll than Ridley Scott or David Lynch so I guess we know how Mary wants this film to end.

Also the misspelling of finances above is the examiner's not mine. All other mistakes are mine.

How to kill a man

Strange pub conversation last night in large part by the murder attempt on the Viper. Given the nature and intent of the attack, our conversation came around to how we'd have tried to do it. With our consensus thinking that the use of a shotgun was a mistake and a pistol at close range would have made much more sense, we have mixed views on whether you were better to approach from the passenger side or from the rear to the driver's side.

Approaching the driver's side from rear with the handgun in your right right and firing the first shoot from a standing position just before this shot should shatter but not necessarily break the glass. Following this shoot with 3 more and you're laughing.

If you have time for four shoots then you have think that reloading a shotgun would be a complete waste of what are previous seconds (particularly if you want to live yourself) . If you had to use a shotgun, then placing the shotgun right up close against the driver's window and shattering the glass with the first blast then shoving hard will break it and then point towards the shadow and discharge at leisure.

It all reminded me of that old joke about the bloke in the north who was stopped at an army checkpoint and told them that he was after coming from Kilnamagh and was off to Kilmore.

Strange conversation right enough but four lovingly pints though.

GSS and the examiner blame Facebook for skiving workers

The article on the cover of yesterday's Examiner which purported to be about Facebook (but which was really about social networking sites generally) gave me and a mate some pause for thought after lunch especially with the level of detail in the various numbers quoted. Some others have noted the peculiar "fact" rich nature of the article.

"Facebook is Ireland’s most popular social networking site with close to 100,000 members. It targets people in the 25-35 age category.

Bebo is aimed at the 13-24 age group and it has in the region of 60,000 members in Ireland. MySpace is aimed at the over 35s. "

I'm pretty sure that Myspace's target market is almost as youthful as Bebo's while Facebook has become the site for the educated and officer class in the US in contrast to MySpace which is for the grunts apparently.

The figure cited as lost productivity was for €700 million for 3 weeks work per year, and the numbers involved were apparently 100,000 people on Facebook and 60,000 on Bebo. Myspace was mentioned in the piece but no numbers cited for how many in Ireland use it, but I guess it most be considerable less than the other two or they would have said what it was.

€700 million for 3 weeks equates to €12.133 Billion in productivity for a full year.

Then when we take the 160,000 or so people alleged involved equates to annual average salaries of nearly 76K per year! Which is nice work if you can get it especially when one considers that most of the individuals on such sites are in the first flush of their working lives. Strangely enough Bebo itself says it has a million users in Ireland. And many of those on such sites do not have office jobs if indeed they have jobs at all (ED - what do you mean students aren't productive?). I'd be surprised if mechanics in a garage or the lassies on the till at your local shop are logging on while working at the day job.

If one takes the time to think about it this way if this half hour per day of wastage at their desk is coming out of the usual time that people will spend in the jacks with a copy of the Sun then perhaps it is a plus for their employer.

It's well over half anyway

"Blogging is entirely negative, entirely cynical", you don't think you were guilty of generalizing overmuch there John Waters? The reason that a great deal of blogs are negative is that they are often reacting to what passes for News in the modern media world and much of it is terribly sloppy. And all produced by the journalists that John holds in such high regard.

According to Waters there is fact checking in journalism. Is there now, like the person who wrote an article for the Village a few years back about the changing role of the news presenter and when profiling the main news anchors in the US referred to Peter Jennings as "still going strong". The man had been dead for a while at that point and for many months have been publicly battling cancer. I emailed the magazine to ask about this quite awful oversight and never received a response. They must have thought I was going to pay them again to read a correction. I did as it happens read a few later copies of the magazine that others had bought but there was no sign of an acknowledgment of such a glaring error. More recently trivially, in a recent copy of Magill just before Christmas there was reference to Mick McCarthy taking us to the quarter finals of the World Cup in 2002. When John was challenged on his percentage figure for the amount of pornography on the Internet, he was unable to cite any source for it other than it being common knowledge and he finally retreated into saying it was well over half. Common knowledge is a great old thing and it has proved so flexible over time. We have folks saying MRSA is down to the gays and it was equally commonly known that black people are great singers but can't swim so well. And let's not forget that old common knowledge that Jews drink babies blood as part of passover. So much for fact checking in journalism John.

Even more worrying in the debate was John's attempt to link the Internet with suicide clustering in Wales. The area in Wales has high rates of unemployment and yet we have a MP talking about people killing themselves because some site allows people to leave tributes to friends who have died. That the site is called Gone Too Soon appears to have slipped the notice of the MP and John Waters. Why not a ban on memoriam cards if remembering people is an encouragement for suicide? Next we'll have columns from Waters blaming people who instruct children in reading and writing for giving kids notions about their lives that may leave some dissatisfied with their lot.

Let's get this man an Oscar nomination!

Jerry O'Connell was in Stand by Me you know.



So this is what he has been doing since Sliders. Good one!

John Waters - it burns, it burns.

57% of the internet is pornography according to John so we shouldn't take anything on it seriously ... Hmmm... interesting argument there from John Waters especially when it comes from someone who works in the err...print media. Now if only he could tell us exactly how long the print media has been free of pornography he'd be done.

The Internet is a medium, you big twit. You give beardy men a bad name and I should know.

Liberals, Libertarians and Lollygaggers

"Freedom is a privilege nobody rides for free" - Steve Van Zandt.

It's a terrible idea to take political ideas or philosophies from song lyrics (especially the 80s) or even off the side of a cereal box but is it really any worse than the schoolboy clutching their recently thumbed Ayn Rand preaching about freedom and the individual and how they don't have to play by the rules because the rules only serve to oppress them and their world altering talent?

True libertarianism properly leads to anarchy, and not the safety pin punk kind either but a totally free society. Such a totally free society that can only exist when it is underpinned by being populated by people who know enough of what they need to do in order to sustain themselves and the freedom that they are exercising. In other words they have to dispose of their rubbish, vacuum the house and make their own dinner. No one else is going to do it for them. With this freedom and personal responsibility come boundaries imposed by the environment. Freedom to listen to whatever you want doesn't mean that you will be able to listen to it at 4am when living in a semi detached house, simply because there is also no law to prevent your neighbour coming round and feeding you hands first into a bacon slicer. There is nothing wrong with aspiring to producing a citizenry capable of living in such a free society even if we can all recognise that it is not going to be possible. Much in the communist pursuit of new Soviet man, though we have enough cop on to know we're not going to get there any time soon. But where does that leave our mollycoddled children of the pseudo right in Ireland?

Most Americans of the centre and even the left are more right wing that most Irish people and moreover most Europeans. However those folks can walk the walk not just quote from Heinlein or Ayn Rand. Oddly enough it seems the Irish software industry is host to many of the pseudo right in Ireland, people who would run a mile from from truly making it on their own. Why is the regulator not doing more for me, why is the state not intervening, why is this state board not doling out more money to me and my chums in funding and why don't people with money give us things for free.

Why not give money to these producers of...what is it again.. ah, solutions? Because most start ups fail, and the best way to make money is at things you know something about. Hell, it is a fact of commercial life that most businesses fail. Though it provides a delicious type of irony that folks who see failure in some spheres to be a mark of shame (I've been unsuccessful at things because I've tried to do things), are aghast at the unwillingness of the hoi polloi to fund their own potential failures.

Some of the more bleating types can barely get through an afternoon without falling over their own contradictions between not believing that agreeing with a license agreement is actually agreeing with it before they're running to their barrack room law books about how some set of terms and conditions they agreed to (or which they might merely have accepted) didn't offer them enough protection from some frightful defilement.

Context is all as they say.

The actual mail that caused my expulsion from Eden. I do note for grammar reasons that I should more properly have said avoided instead of avoid. My intention was to pass on a minor crib to Mr Mulley and that was all, I even explicitly acknowledge in the last line that it was entirely up to himself what language he uses.

Mail history begins here -

To: "Damien Mulley"

A tad harsh I was only saying, not sure who ate your doughnut. And the latter is
anatomically difficult. G'luck.

> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Damien Mulley" <>
> To: "Daniel Sullivan" <>
> Subject: Re: Happy new year and all that.
> Date: Mon, 31 Dec 2007 16:32:53 +0000
>
> Dan, don't bother contacting me again. Go f%&k yourself.

Damien,

Hope your health gets sorted in the new year and that you're in fine fettle
throughout. One minor crib but would it be at all possible if you avoid
using the R word in future.

- EDs note: Note the following text is taken from Damien's site as linked to below -

But there’s more!
But hell, with P.S., I’m a Retard doing so well and Irish accents being all
hot again, let’s give them quality stuff. Glenroe. Dinny and Miley and Fanny
and Biddie and endsinYie and their Billy Barry kids with D4 accents.

- EDs notes: my quoting from his site ends at this point -

http://www.mulley.net/2007/12/29/the-irish-yet-again-miss-another-obvious-opportunity

I know it sounds terribly nanny state of me, and it is entirely up to yourself.
Anyway have a good'un.

Mail history ends here!

A heresy

I'm not interested in starting a war, not even a minor police act or peacemaking intervention or whatever people ended up calling the thing in Iraq. However, once it appears that one man's consumer right advocate decides becomes tomorrow's whinger or the smug man's George Carlin I'm disinclined to hold fire. Course I didn't actually instruct anyone to stop using any particular word, I was merely enquiring if the use of one word could be avoided by way of a crib or comment; passing comment supposedly being the lifeblood of blogging. There are naturally going to be times when no other word will do but the word that one has chosen with such care and consideration as Billy Connolly so perfectly illustrated in his timeless comparison of "fuck off versus go away - exclamation mark". Yet there is the world of a difference between Billy Connolly swearing and some spotty teenager repeating the same word again and again at the top of their voice for their own amusement . Most of us can tell the difference.

Naturally, when you've built yourself up and been built up by others so that you've got the loudest platform the tempting idea when someone says something that you disagree with is to misrepresent what the other person had to say so as to portray the other person in the worst possible light and then seek to drown out this other viewpoint. This all serves to ensure that you're always going to be the one seen in the right. There is an expectation amongst the hoi polloi that the great and the good don't stoop so low, perhaps in truth it should be less an expectation and more a means to identify the great from the merely well known.

Nanyway, Turns out that in reality once the individual's voice is loud enough it's also a cracking good way to ensure that the voice of other individuals isn't heard. Of course presenting yourself as an advocate of debate but then cutting someone's access mid-stream so as to prevent them from responding is a pretty contrary way to go about such things. But to do so without actually letting on to everyone else involved in the conversation that you've canceled their ticket creates the impression that you've won and they've simply retreated with their tail between their legs. At least in sports everyone else gets to actually see you taking your ball away with you. Not so for the high priest of Irish blogging who nixes your access on the QT and professes himself more than adequate to be the impartial judge of all that it is good or bad in Irish blogs. Could the same person really have said

"... I think that the philosophy of blogging, with everyone allowed to comment on what you write and point to what you write and quote what you write will be assimilated more into mainstream. I'm a big fan of Jeff Jarvis and his ideas of the newsroom of the future are well worth a read. As I said earlier, blogs are a great way of enabling the voice of the individual to be heard." ?

Bad words for the beautiful people

Just in case some folks are being given the impression the thought police have come down on poor Mulley.net and are trying to suppress his right to party or some such I thought I post the briefest of background since I’m not allowed post any comments in response.

I mailed the newly crowned journalistic technology supremo of the Irish internet scene suggesting I had a minor crib about the use of the word “retard” in a post of his and if it’s use could be avoided if that were at all possible. Not wishing to be needlessly Michael Howard about all this but I did not at any point instruct anyone (and who the hell would I be to be to instructing or telling anyone what to do) to stop using particular words, I was simply making a comment. And it was only a minor crib and as far as I can see people are all over the place talking up the idea of social networks and collaboration and a key aspect of that effort is the value of feedback. Sad fact is that when you’re on the receiving end you're not going to agree with much of the feedback and you plain might not like some of it. But that's the point of it. For my own part, I had honestly thought that the word had largely disappeared from conversation in this side of the Atlantic, not that it had even been as common here as it was in the US. Now, I wasn’t offended by the word or upset; I will admit to being somewhat surprised to see it. I got a mail back which succinctly told me “Dan, don't bother contacting me again. Go fuck yourself.” Well, that's me told then isn't it. Of course what some like to term Political Correctness is what others would might just call simple decency.

The follow up response on-line has been to declare that he will not be stopped from using whatever words he wishes, though how exactly someone just saying something is remotely going down the road of “stopping” them I’ve no idea but there ya go. And the post naturally has to include a variety of words to show how Damien is reaching for his ready pack of Twenty Major to defend saying fuck or whatever but Twenty is genuinely funny and quite pointed in his comments; the post I was commenting on was neither funny nor very pointed.

And most odd of all in the heel of the hunt is that someone who was quite recently carping about the fact that someone that he had occasion to pick a bone with had the temerity to ban his comments is very quick to use the same tactic once someone else’s shoe is on another foot entirely. Yep it seems so sensitive is Damo to any kind of negative comment that it turns out that I’ve been “banned” from posting comments on the site of the great and all powerful Wiz. Not that I posted much of any use in any case, so no loss to anyone there.

So by all means keep reading Mulley, he posts some really interesting stuff, but for God’s sake don’t dare say anything negative about him or it’s the stocks or the badlands for you.

US primary predictions - Republicans

I think that the Republican race has changed very significantly in recent days or over the holiday period as people call it stateside. And I think it has happened as people come to the conclusion that Giuliani isn’t the guy when it comes to facing off against terrorism and that McCain fills that role much better.

Huckabee may well still win Iowa but my personal inclination is that it will be Romney and that win will serve to insulate Romney from too much damage from losing New Hampshire to McCain but Romney being involved in a close finish with McCain will allow McCain the airtime to get his experience and

So the race is now between Romney and McCain, I think Romney will win Iowa but either lose New Hampshire to McCain or that McCain will be so much closer to Romney than expected that he is the one to come out of New Hampshire with more Mo’. Huckabee should win South Carolina but his campaign could implode if he doesn't do as well as many have come to expect him to do in Iowa. A possible Howard Dean for the '08 Republicans? Probably not but it is possible.

Giuliani will still win Florida I suspect but not especially convincingly and Super-Duper (and what a mistake that has been for the states that wanted to play a role in deciding who is the nominee) Tuesday will see the departure of Thompson.

Ron Paul isn’t going to bother departing the race as his real aim is to shape the platform (manifesto) at the convention. The winner take all nature of the Republican primary should insulate the party against that but he could still have influence. Huckabee is in large part really running for the VeeP slot though and he could get it from McCain as a means to reassure the religious conservatives. Though I think Romney would have a better claim on the ticket given his likely performance but I wonder if he will view it too much as beneath him still Romney would put Mass in play and some other New England states.

US primary predictions - Democrats

Democrats:

I think Iowa won’t decide anything for certain for the Democrats other than confirming that all the big three could win the nomination. (Now how is that for a hostage to fortune?) Clinton is still the favourite at this point for Iowa and the nomination but so was Dean four years and just look at what that got him. What the democrats have learned from the 1988 election is that they have to pick someone who will reach outside their base and honestly Clinton doesn’t do that. The other odd thing about American politics is the boredom factor, people are to some extent bored with the coverage of Clinton and Obama, if Edwards can get come out of Iowa as the little candidate that could and if Obama wins New Hampshire and South Carolina then Clinton

If Edwards is over 20% in Iowa (before the divvying up of the remainder votes) he is still well at the races, if Hillary is under 30% then it proves she can be caught nationally and the post vote writing will be about how vulnerable she is looking and if Obama goes over 30% on the first count and wins then he is going to get the Big Mo’ into New Hampshire. However, I don’t think Obama will win Iowa because I think he lacks the organisation comparatively speaking of Clinton and Edwards in turns of getting people out to vote. And getting people to come out is the problem that did for Dean in the end.

My prediction for Iowa before the departure of the non-viable is

Clinton 27% Obama 26% Edwards 24% Richardson 6% Biden 4% Dodd 1% Kucinich 1%

After those under 15% are eliminated I think Edward wins and Clinton finishes 3^rd.

Edwards/Obama

People might well ask could Obama go on the ticket as VP if Oprah has come out for him. Clinton as nominee running against McCain/Huckabee would be Godsend to the Republicans as they don’t have to do anything much after that to motivate the religious conservatives to come out and vote, McCain/Huckabee against an Edwards/Obama ticket would look old and cranky.

Again Clinton will win Michigan but with Obama a very close 2^nd and Edwards not a million miles away) he might be a few thousand miles off)

January 3, 2008 Iowa^[7] caucus 29 10 6 45 11 56

Edwards to win, Obama 2nd

January 8, 2008 New Hampshire primary^[8][9] 14 5 3 22 8 30

Obama to win, Clinton 2^nd, Edwards get over 20%

January 15, 2008 Michigan primary 83 28 17 128 29 157 [0]

Again Clinton will win Michigan but with Obama a very close 2^nd and Edwards not a million miles away) he might be a few thousand miles off)

January 19, 2008 Nevada caucus^[10] 16 6 3 25 8 33

Clinton wins but Edwards out shades Obama for a distantish 2^nd.

January 26, 2008 South Carolina primary^[11] 29 10 6 45 9 54

Obama wins South Carolina, Edwards does better than expected but Clinton is a close 2^nd to Obama.

January 29, 2008 Florida primary 121 40 24 185 25 210 [0]

I think that Obama has a lower ceiling in Florida than Edwards and if Clinton weakens Edwards might be the one to benefit most. I would still expect Clinton to win Florida.

US primary predictions

This time four years ago (ok it was about a month from now as the primaries were later in the year then) I watched John Kerry on Meet the Press and realised that he had made the necessary changes to his message ere: the War in Iraq to win the Democratic nomination and to win Iowa. At that time most people thought Dean had a lock on Iowa and while they thought Kerry could still come back they were all wondering how and where he would do it. That he would head off the challenge in Iowa was not considered by most people to be at all likely. I texted a few friends “to call” Iowa for Kerry and left it at that.

Given that my intuition or reasoning turned out to be correct I’ve chanced a few other predictions not all of them correct but it’s fun for me at least and no one gets hurt. So turning my attention to this year’s election race in the US I’ve had a gander at the line up of the two main parties (what? you don’t want me to look at the Libertarian race too?) and my predictions follow here for the Dems and the Reps.

HorrorStoriesÉireann

Ah for feck's sake, it's worse this shower are getting not better. Read this account of a women's dealings with the HSE.

Note to the HSE- when you try and fix something it's an idea not to break loads of other things in the process.

Eoghan Harris has caniptions over Bertie and Mahon

It was one of those you had to be there moments with Eoghan Harris on last Sunday's (Dec 9th) Political Party with Ursula Halligan on TV3 (Jessica Fletcher's daughter) only thanks to the web you can be there now! I love the bit where she has to try and coak him into continuing. "we'll move on, we'll move on, do you want to move on?". I'm convinced she was on the verge of offering him a biccy if he was a good boy...

Fine Gael and the Reform Treaty referendum - don't move a muscle

I'm not unsure myself about what my own view on the European Reform Treaty will be. However I do have a very certain view as to what Fine Gael as a party should do. I strongly believe that the government parties should be allowed the space to campaign for this treaty that they have negotiated on our behalf. I think that FG representatives should be able to agree the case for the treaty on the national airwaves if that as seems most likely is the party's position. The party can put up a few billboards and YFG should do one of those poster campaigns that they've proved so adept at.

However when it comes to the vast armory of the party organisation it should be kept in reserve. Just as we did not fall for the false battle of the citizenship referendum in 2004 we should avoid being dragged into the hard slog on this one. Not a canvasser, not a door knock should the local party organisations do. Nor should local representatives feel in any way obliged to do much more than a few pieces in support in the local newspaper.

The 2007 Fudget

The problem for me with is budget this the numbers. See the numbers can add up all they want but we can't have that much confidence that the numbers will actually pan out as presented.

The 0.9 deficit is completely dependent on spending actually being controlled at an 8% rise for current expenditure and tax revenue growing according to the prediction, and all that with BenchMarking 2 coming down the pike (as the yanks would say) along with a housing slump sitting in the sidecar.

24,000 new jobs is a massive drop from the existing figure, Cowen said 72,000 was the previous number I think. It's not about applying the brakes instead the hydraulics are seizing and the vehicle of the national economy is starting to drift across the road into oncoming traffic.

It sounds like a reasonable budget in many ways but there is the problem, who really believes that with benchmarking 2 coming that spending increases of 8% will be achievable without cutting existing services?

My friend - Bertie.

Myself and a housemate used to drink in the Goose quite a bit and from time to time we'd encounter Bertie in there. Once I was even in the jacks just after he had gone in. Little did I know that this level of interaction makes me his friend, perhaps even a close friend. I'm a terrible person despite the closeness of our relationship, I haven't ever sent him a Christmas card and I completely snubbed his daughter's wedding. And not once did I offer to lend him money.

I'm a bad, bad person.

We win the internet - Seanad reform to start with 3rd level seats.

According to reports in two of today's papers the IT and the Examiner ,

So next time we can vote too!

Fair dues to John Gormley, even if his election observers were somewhat uncover at the count he has pressed on with actual reform.

Now if only I could get some movement on the issue of charges for disabled adults I could claim 100% victory.

Have I heard some of this before?

Interesting to look at what the BBC's man covering the Australian elections has to say about the themes of the election campaign.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/nickbryant/2007/11/political_junkie.html

"If you’re interested, here are the some possible themes to have emerged this time round.

• The obvious importance of green issues, and their impact, crucially, as vote-shifters. John Howard’s salutary policy announcement during the televised debate focussed on climate change. The all-important seat of Wentworth has almost become a referendum on green issues.

• Housing affordability. Targeting first-time buyers and possibly the parents who are still providing a roof over their heads, Kevin Rudd kicked off his campaign on this very issue.

• Broadband speed is looming larger as a political issue (which is not surprising in Australia, the land of the sluggish internet connection).

• Ditto the availability of hi-tech teaching materials to schoolchildren, like lap-tops (or the “tool box of the future”, as Kevin Rudd calls it).

• Water shortages have featured, but, in this drought-ridden country, not as much as you might have thought.

• This election has been less about big ideas than managerialism: essentially, who is most capable of running the economy, and, arguably, finding practical solutions to meet the challenge of climate change.

• Does Kevin Rudd’s fluency in Mandarin herald the day much later in this century, or perhaps the next, when it’s a much more common diplomatic language?

• This is not Australia’s first internet election but it is its first YouTube election. Is the reason we are seeing politicians ambushed so frequently now because within a few minutes the material can be uploaded onto the web? Political performance art is here to stay.

I am sure there are others, but I had better go. I missed the debate the other day between Treasurer Peter Costello and Labor’s deputy leader Julia Gillard, and I’m hoping to catch the re-run. Honest."

Why someone has to resign - Mary Harney

I'm only following on from the early coverage others have given this as I've been offline for a wee bit with work.

Anyone who would have worked in any work area that looks for problems or defects (such as the software industry or whatever) knows that you write them up and report them as soon as you find them, you don't store them up for weeks until you feel like letting them loose on those who have to deal with them. Yet the HSE do seem to take the view (and it is all the more peculiar when you consider it is actually real life and death issues in which timely intervention is of the essence that they are looking at) that they should wait until they've done with one thing before moving onto another. All that multitasking that we hear might be possible with so many people working in the HSE seems not to be possible. Are members of the HSE still covered by that old civil servant unsackability?

There was a glaring inconsistency yesterday between the comments of the HSE rep John O' Brien to the Dail Committee that surgical revision did not mean mammogram or ultrasound and the HSE local rep from PortLaoise that women being recalled would have new mammograms and ultrasounds as well as possible biopsies. There again that is the same man from PortLaoise who said they were waiting until they had enough of a cohort before starting, starting mind to contact the women concerned. And let's consider for a moment this whole "contacting business" which it appears involves writing to the women affected today (watch the man on RTe), does writing to them today mean those letters will be posted today? And even so is he aware that most places have no post over the weekend, and with the unreliability of the post many of those women will not get the all clear until Tuesday or even Wednesday next. I'll bet if they were cheques to builders for work done that the HSE would have couriered them to their homes. I also would question the value of tomorrow's special clinic which since it won't involve any tests will be working on the visual and consultation assessment of the doctors involved.

To add insult to injury not being contacted by the HSE today or tomorrow does not necessarily mean you are in the all clear as you could be part of the 170 that they haven't got to looking at yet. I wonder if they have been working a straight forward 9-5 on this issue or was any overtime approved in order to expedite their efforts?

The core problem for Mary Harney in all this is pretty simple, she is (just all our other ministers) more than happy to associate herself with any success stories that come out in health services say a reduction in deaths from heart disease for which she is not directly responsible (she isn't the one doing the actual work) for yet when any sort of downside presents itself she is magically immune from any sort responsibility as is everyone else in the HSE.

Light rail in Limerick

A possible alternative route for trams or light rail in Limerick as suggested by me!

Hollywood writers strike is good for something

At least there has been one positive outcome from the current WGA strike.

Financial Crisis, what Crisis?

The sub prime markets turmoil explained, is it for idiots by idiots?

Show me the way to go home - by Dublin Bus

A strike or is it just a picket that no one will cross at Harristown over the changes in rostering involved in the new 4A and 128 services from Dublin Bus.

So ,what is it all about? Well, that is kind of hard to find out in any great detail. It seems some what digging about I've been able to do that Dublin Bus wants some of the drivers to clock in at Harristown but to actually start their shifts on the buses in Dublin city centre, which is not that much of a problem except that they must get into the city in 45 minutes and it will be their "ass in a sling" or at the very least their responsibility for any failure of the buses to keep to their timetables. So how does a person get from Harristown to the city centre in 45 minutes? Buses? Some chance. Basically, they will have to be clocking in at Harristown well in advance when of they need to simply to make sure they get into the city. So why one wonders have the requirement of having to go to Harristown at all?

Siptu tell us some things about the dispute but again not that much of the meat of the issue.

God help us it's not like the NBRU are trying to keep up to date with what is going on.

And Dublin Bus aren't giving much away other than telling folks what the impact is.

A firing offense?

HERE'S a man who can't be accused of talking down the property market: auctioneer Ken MacDonald (right) of Hooke & MacDonald has had his Blackrock bungalow on the market for 13 months . . . and he hasn't budged an inch on the 2.4m asking price, so he can't be accused of adding to the nearly 4% drop in house prices this year.

MacDonald put the 2,100 sq ft home up for auction with Sherry FitzGerald in October 2006 with an AMV of 2.4m, but evidently found no takers at the price. That didn't stop him listing it for sale by private treaty without a discount, though.

Everything the brochure says about the place appears to be true . . . it's charming, bright, attractive and generously proportioned . . . everything, that is, except the kicker: "Sure to be of instant appeal to a variety of discerning purchasers, from young families to those seeking to trade down alike". Leaving aside the visitor-from-Mars belief that a 2.4m house represents an opportunity to trade down, MacDonald and his enablers at Sherry Fitz have proven themselves to be way off on the "instant appeal" judgment.

Still, he's sticking to his story: "There's real confidence out there, " he told the Irish Independent last Thursday.

Judging by change of address documents he filed with the Companies Registration Office, MacDonald got tired of waiting for the market to produce a willing buyer for the Blackrock albatross and decamped to a new pad in Sandymount. Perhaps he doesn't need the money that badly, even in these leaner times for auctioneers.

(Thanks to astute commentators at thepropertypin. com and the anonymous blogger at arandomwalk. com for producing this story. )

I am a member of the human race

And though I may disagree with you about many, many things I will defend your right to be a member with my life even if you might not do the same because though you may doubt it within you I will live again.

And here we are.

All Gods love us equally, and in their eyes we are all their greatest fear.

We will never die, never grow old and never have a secret never to be told.

The new provisional car movement

The last 48 hours have seen an unprecedented level of political outrage pouring out in the main from folks under 30 in Ireland, why?

Because the government announced it was going to enforce the law fully with regard to those on provisional licenses and also change the anomaly with regard to those on 2nd provisional license. Not a bad idea one would think except the same government has spent years turning a blind eye to the underlying problem with Irish driving behaviour and who is responsible for driver behaviour, well I would guess that would be drivers. The odd thing is this should not be in any way a party political issue in that there is no aspect of ideology unless we allow for the purist of the pure libertarians who would reckon that all and any regulation is wrong.

Should these people be unaccompanied on the roads? Of course not, but when you ask why are they on the road, ah well that is a question that no one wagging their figures about the problem appears interested in addressing. Those with licenses will tell you it is because they are lazy or stupid. Most people do not pass the test the first time, yet all those with licenses appear to acquire a common degree of self satisfaction that they have passed the test. Passing the test does not mean you are a good driver, you are merely competent. The truth is that too large a number of those with full licenses are bad drivers and at the heart of what the RSA is proposing to do is to change things so that people will no longer pass the test and somehow still be bad drivers with bad habits. In effect they are abandoning all hope of reaching the existing full license community and that is just plain wrong.

Why is it so bad? Well, we've got a cultural problem obeying the law when we think it isn't sensible. The fact is that in Ireland we have a poor standard of driving across the board. It has been poor for decades and by and large nothing by anyone has been done about it. Let us look at some of the reality of a moment or two: there is a tranche of people (something like over 200,000) from the mid 80s who got full licenses because they had been on the waiting list for a test for so long that they were on a third provisional, so the solution was to give them all full licenses not as a temporary measure but for good. They've never passed a test but all have full licenses; that is almost half the number of people on provisional but we don’t hear any calls for them to be made pass the test. Why well most of them would be in their late 40s, and according to some the fact that they have been driving for years now means they must be reasonable good, which is the sort of logic that leads some to believe that because they have been on provisional licenses for years that they shouldn’t need to do a test. Throw in those from about twenty years prior to that who never had to do a test because they simply had to but the license and we’ve got a number nearly as large as the number of provisional licenses driving around unaccompanied never having passed the test.

Those on provisional licenses make up 25% of all those on the roads but account for much less than that in roads deaths. Of course this is because not all of the 420,000 are on the road at all. And why are there 420,000 people with provisional licenses? Again let us be sensible about that figure of 420,000 provisional licenses many of them are held by people who are not driving at all, it could 50,000 it could be 100,000, who knows not the RSA. These people may have got them so they could learn to drive but found they didn't have time or the finances to afford driving lessons so they do not use them, but once you get one the clock is ticking.

The test does not make you a better driver it simply states that on a given day that you were sufficiently competent. No one is magically a better driver the day after the test than they were the day before, the really sad fact is that most are never again as good a driver as they were that day. If the problem we are addressing is evidently with the vast bulk those involved in accidents namely full licenser holders then the idea might have been to retest them all when they renew their licenses. Of course we couldn’t do that because the testing system is clogged to choking already.

The fact is that the majority of fully licensed drivers in Ireland never took much in the way of formal lessons. Everyone acknowledges that the system is flawed and is consistently producing bad drivers but instead of dealing with the problem of poor driver behaviour the RSA has ignored doing something that might cost money like ensuring proper standards in the instruction and tester of drivers. Learning to drive should be a serious business and lessons should be comprehensive. Another aspect that we need to look at is our attitude to when in your life you learn to drive, we allow for people to start while still children so we suggest that driving is something a child can do when it should be obvious to us all that while control of a car might be straightforward enough for a child that the decision and risk assessment isn’t. And driving lessons aren't something you should be treating like some of us treat confession something you do every once in a while when your mother gets on your back about it. You can't take a 2 hour lesson and then another set of lessons 2 months later. Also one hour lessons are a waste of time especially in built up places like Dublin as you spend 15 minutes driving the previous person home and the 15 minutes driving to the next person's place, not much time to get to one of the areas that schools use as practices areas (and why have we never thought to allocate some land to driving ranges in the sense of places that people learn the basics of moving a car about off the road system). The state has a view of who is learning to drive which appears to suggest they think the typical learner driver is on working and living at home with their parents with access to a car for lessons and a support network of friends and relations who can help out, the reality is probably more likely that the typical learner is just after starting work, living away from home and with friends living spread all over the city and not in a position to assist in the learning process. Throw in a 3 hour commute per day on public transport and I’m not clear where they will find the time to take lessons with sufficient frequency to get the confidence to drive.

The aims of the RSA report are laudable and we should be intending to achieve them, but you don't start by demanding that people take lessons without first making sure that lessons of a sufficiently quality are available. You don't demand that people take a test that isn't available to them or the quality of which is questionable. Surely it is part of the remit of the RSA to find out why we have such problems what the consequence are and how do we deal with the problems in order alleviate the problems.

And how is it that we can't cope with the numbers of people looking to take the test after all it is a roughly predictable number. Taking a rough figure from the leaving cert we probably have somewhere in the region of 70,000 people coming onto the driving scene each year. A test takes about 45 minutes which means each tester can get through 10 or so tests per day on average so 50 per week that means 20 testers would do a thousand per week, which is 52,000 and we have far more than 20 in the country. So why does the backlog exist? Because the state wasn’t bothered enough to tackle those involved in the testing process and then gave the same type of nod and wink to those on provisional licenses as Dempsey did yesterday that it wouldn’t matter if they drove. And some people think he is taking a lead on the issue?

Peition on the implementation of new driving restrictions

This petitions ask that the implement of a crackdown on those driving on provisional licenses be postponed until such time as the problems in testing and training of drivers is sorted out.

http://www.petitiononline.com/moretime/petition.html

Update: I posted the petition on p.ie and then left it while I did some work and it has garnered over 600 signatures in just under 3 hours.

From my former life

A classic of the type and pretty much summed up the feeling of some at the time, major hat tip to Gabriela for finding it. That said feeling was muted by the offer price being 2.5 times the stock price at the time, and the frank that IBM turned out to be as much interested in becoming more like Lotus than simply buying the technology.

Too scared to take the stand

I was at the SOS rally in Limerick this weekend and for all that it was interesting to see what people had to say for themselves and who turned up it was also interesting for those that couldn't bring themselves to face the music. As expected the fearless defender of his political career Willie O'Dea stayed away but John Cregan (FF - Limerick West) tried to make the case for Fianna Fail and effectively took a bullet for the party by being booed off the stage. Oddly enough RTE appear to have chosen not to report the fact that Cregan was actually booed off the stage preferring to simply say the crowd was anger at times. Timmy Dooley TD (FF - Clare) on the other hand decided to sit it out in the crowd (I guess by doing so he can say he was at the event even though he wasn't quite brave enough to face the music by taking the stand with Cregan), dressed casually as you can see in th picture below he can't claim that he was perhaps intending to take the stand but was somehow delayed by traffic and found himself so late that he didn't want to disturb those on the stand it. Even the very young in attendance thought the guff from Cregan about reporting back to the Sun-Taoiseach with our "concerns" a bit of fairytale for this hour of the day.




Curiously the local mayors who spoke weren't referred to by their party membership in an effort to spare the blushes of the likes of Kevin Sheehan Cathaoirleachof Limerick County a FF stalwart. Sheehan in his speech managed to blame the people of Dublin, faceless bureaucrats and most bizarrely called for people to vote against the European Treaty referendum, I guess it's one way to get people to vent before the local elections in 2009. we couldn't have people holding the government responsible for running the country now could we? and he asked the Taoiseach great man that he is after bringing peace to the north to come to Limerick to broker talks to allow us all to live in harmony.

As the Claw noted at the end some local representatives "lacked the balls" to even show their face and and someone else stated that we have no need Saturday night fighters who come Monday morning are more Minnie mouse than Mighty Mouse.

More pics here

Best election program ever!

I caught this on the beeb during the week part of their Why Democracy season and it shows up so many aspects of Democracy that it is scary.

I think it is one of the instance classic documentaries that come along every few years and is perhaps the best political program I've ever seen bar none!

Ok the West Wing is still class but this is just so brilliant.

Heroes - top of the flying man to y'all.

I've been looking at the 2nd series of Heroes (don''t ask how, but I promise to watch it when it is on big telly if that's ok with the advertisers).

It is proving interesting viewing but I have major bone to pick with the producers, if you're going to have Irish characters it might an idea to source some Irish actors or at the very least people who can do an passable Irish accent. In this day and age I would have thought they might have been able to score an Irish actor or six to play the parts.

Just the facts, Ma'am, just the Facts. Lies and the Irish Health Service

We are told that people are on waiting within an average of 2-5 months. Now you'd have to admit that is a pretty broad average even by the standards we tend to see in the health sector. A real average would be something like 3 months 17 days and not something that is more than 150% the size of the shortest time period involved.

We are also told that reducing staff numbers will have no impact on patient care, yet we are contrastingly regularly informed that increasing staff numbers is only undertaken if it will result in an improvement in patient care.

We are also told that of the 40,000 on waiting lists that 12,000 are waiting over 6 months.

We are told that 6,000 fail to turn up for their procedures and that this is entirely their own fault. Now, I've had personal experience of this circumstance of not being able to make an appointment as my father who is in his 70s was consistently only informed late on the day before that he was to be in Cork city at a hospital early the following morning for a procedure that he has to under go on a regular but not too frequent basis. Traveling to Cork for this procedure means a journey that he has to undertake by public transport, and public transport is something he can't access at a sufficiently early hour to be in Cork for 10am. Cork can't provide him with a bed overnight prior to the procedure and yet keeps scheduling the procedure for early in the morning. There is no political ideology at work here between public and private it is down to competence and work practices. It has been repeatedly pointed out to the people Why not schedule appointments for those closest to the hospital early in the day and those from further away for later on allowing them to travel there any back? It has been repeatedly raised with the folks on the front line who have we believe passed it on to the administration people yet it never seems to affect his appointment times.

They are watching us - from a distance

What did I do? I noticed when doing the usual old trawl through my stats that I had a visit from a genuinely interesting place in the form of the Sergeant at Arms of the United States Senate. All are more than welcome to visit and contribute, just don't be expecting me to stop watching The Daily show, cos I won't God damn it.

URuGuAY

Did you know that there are 202,000,000 matches for URuGuAY in google but 365,000,000 for Ireland? And the difference can't be all down to entries for Stephen Ireland's bebo page.

Like the turning of the leaves and the resurgent urge to finally turn the gas on in the evenings RTe visits us with portents of economic doom and despair - David McWilliams is back on our screens. At least Dickens had the decency to leave the morose stuff until Christmas when we could get drunk and vent at the relations about our lot in life. Dear old Dave is at us before we've lost our fake tans.

This time out he is telling us about what he terms "The generation game" whereby the property market has enriched the old at the expense of the young and allowed us all to think that the Celtic Kitty is still purring along nicely when it is in fact the burrowing and munching of a teeming bellyful maggots that is creating the low hum. now, I don't fundamentally disagree with the lad but did he actually have to go to China to find out there are loads of people there, that it's dirt cheap compared to here and that oh man but are some of the ladies tasty - ok I was noticing that last bit all on my own. Won't someone think of the planet? One thing that doesn't get mentioned too much is if the lads on the factory floor in the middle kingdom screw up you can't sue them worth a damn.

In terms of the rest of the presentation, I have to wonder what the bright spark in the development in Ongar was thinking when they thought it a good idea to be letting David and pals sneer about their apartment development. And I thought that there must be something more behind the fact that the Uruguayan collapse than just that they couldn't make cows as cheaply anymore and the "do you feel Irish" comment to Conrad O'Neill that mets the ear. We might find out next week, at least it fits in more naturally to the RTe comedy profile for Monday nights than Prosperity.

Bertie Ahern "Liar in Chief" - Sue me.

So it turns out that Bertie has being lying all along in the lead up to the tribunal, he told everyone who would listen and many who preferred to have the chance not to that he had fully cooperated with the tribunal, that he was eager to get into it and have his day in court so to speak. As we have seen over the last 2 days that is emphatically not the case, he has dragged his feet on every occasion, he asked that the tribunal only look at his accounts from 89-92 when they were in fact dormant as a consequence of his separation and his lawyers asked on his behalf that only amounts over 30,000 should be examined. That would hardly constitution full and fair disclosure if he were in the business of selling houses.

It is worth noting that when you consider all the months and months it apparently took Bertie and pals to unearth all those tedious details about his bank accounts that right from the "get go" (as our American cousins would say) he and his lawyers were adamant that the threshold should be 30K. How did they come to pick this monetary sum unless they in fact knew that he made it a habit to deal only in the amounts less than this figure.

So let me be quite plain about this Bertie Ahern, Taoiseach of Ireland, has lied and he has lied about his lying. It's time for the truth. If Bertie can prove otherwise let him sue me.

Ripoff Art.E

The recent coverage of the proposed new statue / scuplture by Antony Gormley has missed a basic fact, it's not new at all. It is one he did earlier and in Ireland too. I should say I rather like the Angel of the North, or the "what the fuck is that?" as it was known for the first few months of its life.

Look at this forlorn lad, head downcast, hands by his side. He is known locally as the Rusty Man and is set in the plaza of UL.



and then look at the proposed chap standing in the Liffey



It's the exact same frigging dude, down to the stance and the hands in the pockets about to mooch a fag look. A moppy looking student type is all well and good hanging around the plaza in UL but standing next to the quays in Dublin peering down the blouses of our tourists?

The strange thing is that yet again something that is meant to be about the docklands as a new area bringing together the north and south of the city ends up turning his rather ample arse to the northside. Now what we should really get is something like this spanning the river!



Come on you know you'd like it. And those things do look like cool sabres or should that be sabers? Hmm....

Why Aer Lingus is right

Aer Lingus are dead right to pull out of Shannon on a commercial basis, they have a finite amount of resources in particular slots into Heathrow and it is their responsibility to their shareholders that they seek to maximise the profit that can be derive from those resources.

So within those boundaries the Aer Lingus management have been consistent with what one would expect a public company. Those boundaries of course were set by the previous owners who in the unique environment of a privatisation had a chance to lay down some markers to shape the company's business into the future and indeed by retaining a significant share holding suggested, publicly at least, that they would continue to be active shareholders. Much along the lines of ethical shareholding whereby people use their portfolio to patronise certain types of business over others. The term "Golden Share" was pointedly used by the government over the course of the company being floated. I'm not sure for whom this share is now Golden, it sure ain''t the customers in the West and Mid-West, unless we're to look to the world of adult entertainment for inspiration.

Fact is that it isn't the decision that Aer Lingus has made that should be the focus of people's ire but instead the manner of the privatisation of the airline along with the Heathrow slots which has placed Aer Lingus in this situation. Yet, who has been asking the hard questions along those lines?

We're had RTe favouring the local FF apparatus in terms of coverage, yet never asking them what they personally had proposed or contributed during the Dail debates on the privatisation of the airline to ensure that the management couldn't make this type of decision. We've had no legal opinion produced by the government that demonstrates why some means to retain control of the Heathrow slots in the state's hands while floating the rest of the company.

The people of the Mid-West voted for FF in overwhelming numbers despite no significant inward investment into the region over the past number of years. And why are they treated so poorly you might wonder? Basically my view is if you continuously turn the other cheek you end up black and blue. I hate to use the analogy as it may suggest to some that I'm making light of a very serious social issue but much of the Irish electoral population behaves like an abused spouse, making excuses for why they are mistreated, continually turning blind eye to every indiscretion and persisting with a steadfast belief in every half arsed reason for why it happened this time and how next time will be different, and accepting that the other lot would be worse. Or so they are told.

As Fintan O'Toole has pointed out people get what they vote for; the fact that they don't bother to pay that much attention isn't really the politicians fault. In a democracy it is the voters who are ultimately the ones pulling the strings.

It isn't that people are thick just that they think they have more money than sense. What's the betting that we see an ex-FFer running as an independent in the Mid-West come the next general election on a platform of returning Aer Lingus to Shannon and the neglect of the region? And that we'll see the promise of one route into Heathrow in time for the 2009 locals.

Finally a minister speaks out!

Look at the latest wheeze from the government that can't bring itself to comment on the pull out of Aer Lingus from Shannon.

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/breaking/2007/0815/breaking40.htm

Mary Hanafin, minister for Education, wants to split maths! into business maths and science maths (the suggestion that we might have two Irish exams for the leaving has previously left the minister aghast at the concept).

Quoting from the article “The Minister said there are students who are very good at science and students who are very good at business. “Why do they both have to do the same maths paper when you can have a little twist on it that can make it more accessible?” ”

Yep that’s the answer to all our problems because 2+2 doesn’t necessary add up to 4 in the business world. Indeed it could be special type of maths where you can get a formula where £30,000 could really be $45,000, or Ir£28,000 4 shillings and sixpence or whatever the lodgement was.

There is a serious problem in Ireland with the teaching of maths and science but this approach is all about indulging a mindset that say "hard" Maths for weirdos not normal people who get to get sexy jobs and get rich. What next - maths for girls?

http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20060610/bob8.asp

Brainy 8-year-old Lisa Simpson is delighted until she attends the girls' math class. "How do numbers make you feel?" the teacher begins. "What does a plus sign smell like? Is the number 7 odd or just different?" Aghast, Lisa poses as a boy to attend the ghettolike boys' school, where real maths is being taught.

Or perhaps we will split Art at Leaving Cert into Art and Art for the tasteless.

The prancing of political geldings

Over the last week or so since the decision of Aer Lingus management to pull out of the Shannon Heathrow, we've witnessed the energetic prancing of political geldings, figures of local and national prominence, minister junior and senior and TDs new and old all giving it loads in front of the cameras and at public meetings but no sign that they will do anything in the Dail when it resumes. I think a vote of no confidence in Dempsey is certainly in order, and I would question the resolve of some of the mid-West TDs to exercise some basic follow through on this issue.

Good examples of the prancing ponies are Tony Killeen telling us that Aer Lingus will be feeling the pressure on the PR side of things - FYI they're pulling out Tony what does it matter to them what people down here think if they are no longer doing business here, Niall Collins telling us on PrimeTime that we should be stepping back. I haven't been too wildly impressed with the contributions of Pat Breen of FG either, taking almost all his time on PrimeTime before getting to the nub of the issue which is the connection to a hub which is what Heathrow is, this is not about getting to London, it is about getting to Heathrow.

This is what Minister Cullen (sure don't we miss him now!) had to say in 2005 about ensuring Irish consumers would have access to Heathrow post the government reducing its stake. So what were the options explored and why were they not proceeded with? Was someone misled here was it the minister or the public?

I'm surprised no one has made this comparison of journeys, say your intention is to get a flight in Heathrow on to some other location say for example Tokyo (I hear it is a bit of a backwater place that is transforming itself into an up and coming place of international business), you leave Castletroy to be in Shannon at least 1 hour before the flight which only takes under an one hour but you can allow about one hour to get from from Terminal 1 to your gate in another Terminal in Heathrow. Because in the current situiation with Aer Lingus doing a code share your luggage makes its own way across the airport, and you (the person travelling) are already checked through.So you arrive at the gate in good time and calm and collected all only 3 hours or so after you left the house.

In the new situation if you fly with RyanAir you will have to wait around and collect you luggage before moving off to the next Terminal but in this case you will be crossing London instead of justr crossing an airport with 3 train journeys from Stansted into Liverpool St, then the tube then the train from Paddington out to Heathrow. None of those changes is for the faint-hearted. I guess Dempsey is so used to have someone else carry his luggage for him that he doesn't remember what travel is like for the little people. And how long would you need to allow for you to cross from Gatwick/Stansted to Heathrow 3 hours allowance wouldn't be crazy (2 hours would be cutting it very fine indeed) and remember you have to be at the check-in desk 2 hours before departure as unlike the existing model you aren't already checked through. So you would be presenting yourself at the gate 7 hours after you left the door of house. Some time difference there I'm sure you will agree.

I would suggest that local business should sponsor a trip by two people accompanied by the press, with video capability to demonstrate the different paths they will have to take to get to a flight going from Heathrow to Tokyo. They would be two very different journeys I reckon and a good example of why telling people that they can still get to London is patronising.

I do know from talking to some folks at the college in UL that one big problem would be that staff use Heathrow as a location for meetings with people from other European universities. As it is a hub it is much easier to a few people to fly there and have the meeting and fly home without ever leaving the airport than to be flying to another location and staying overnight some place.

For students in UL, Euramus in particular I can foresee quite a lot of problem with access and this must move UL down the pecking order for choice locations. And speaking more internationally it will be a problem for those coming from Asia particularly China which is viewed a as a huge stragegic opportunity for Ireland.

I would also think that the decentralisation of the Overseas development staff from the Department of Foreign Affairs must now be seriously at risk. You can hardly move the staff to a place that doesn't have direct access to one of the major airline hubs.

More on Puck ar buizer

I wrote this to Madam in response to a letter from Dr. Mick Loftus in last Saturday's Irish Times

Madam, -

As a proud son of Puck, I challenge Dr. Loftus to produce evidence
that supports his outrageous implication in his letter of July 28th
that Killorglin has a disproportion rate of homicides, road traffic
deaths, rapes and suicides as a consequence of hosting Puck Fair.

As a former coroner I would have expected Dr. Loftus to base his
argument on the particular facts of the case rather than producing a
generalised rant impugning the reputation of the town I grew up in.
Dr. Loftus’ failure to wait until he had read the facts before
forming his opinion is exemplified by his misquoting of Judge
O’Connor as saying he had “walked the streets of
Caherciveen at 2.30am and observed no thuggery” when the judge
had explicitly referred to Killorglin in the report of July 20th.

The Gardai are not Killorglin Gardai as Dr. Loftus states but rather
the district authorities for the region as Killorglin, in contrast to
Caherciveen, is serviced by a mere “Green Man” for the
much of the time. The concerns of the Gardai appear more directed at
operational and budgetary concerns regarding overtime than any real
concerns about a higher rate of crime during the festival. Had it
been otherwise they would have produced the statistics in court to
back up their argument. As they did not, it is not.

Puck Fair in contrast to many other summer festivals is a working
fair. Considerable entertainment is laid on in the open air; yet the
nature of the Irish summer means much of the craic and ceol is
naturally to be found indoors. I would contend that if the
arrangement agreed 31 years ago which saw the introduction of 3am
closing at Puck is to be revisited at all then a return to the
original situation whereby pubs could open continuously for the full
3 days should be given consideration. What is needed in addressing
alcohol abuse is not the simplistic abstention versus overindulgence
argument that Dr. Loftus is espousing but a renewal of the practice
of social drinking; where drinking is not the purpose of the
socialisation but something that merely accompanies it.

I would ask the good Dr. to apologise to the people of Killorglin and
I would urge people to come to Puck and enjoy the craic; with or
without a drink but always with a smile.

Would you ever Puck off?

I read this piece (more below) in the Irish Times last week and wondered if the Supt might not be right and perhaps the 3am closing time for the 3 nights of Puck should be revisited. Yeah revisited and returned to the original format by which there was not closing of the pubs in Killorglin at all for 3 whole days!

Anne Lucey in Cahersiveen

An attempt by gardaí to have the traditional 3am pub hours extension for Puck Fair in Killorglin reduced by one hour was refused by Cahersiveen District Court yesterday.

The court was told it took "a considerable" Garda presence in Killorglin to prevent drink-related, late-night public order incidents during the fair.

Supt Michael O'Donovan said he was objecting to the traditional application by vintners for exemption orders to 3am. He said the 3am opening was unique to Puck Fair, was in place for 31 years and it was time to look at it. His application was to reduce it by an hour in line with other fairs and festivals in the county and in the country. The judge refused the application.

Street entertainment finished at 11pm during Puck Fair, the superintendent said. "Nothing beyond that time other than to consume alcohol takes place. There should be something other than the consumption of alcohol, particularly in the current climate. Consuming alcohol between 11pm and 3am without entertainment surely has to be looked at," he argued.

12 gardaí and two sergeants were drafted into Killorglin from outside the district to work at night, alongside the Cahersiveen district gardaí, he told Judge James O'Connor.

Domestic violence incidents also arose during the fair. The application for a series of exemptions, including early morning openings, was made by Killorglin publican Paul Kingston on behalf of some 22 publicans in Cromane and Killorglin.

Solicitor for the vintners, Tim O'Shea, said music sessions took place in most pubs. Extra policing was required not because of any alcohol problem but because of the sheer numbers of people in the town.

Declan Mangan, chairman of Puck Fair, told the court the fair was an excellent well run festival, worth up to €10 million to Killorglin, Killarney and mid-Kerry.

"Drink is only part of the festival," Mr Mangan said.

Publican Declan Falvey said a substantial number of pubs depended on the festival for vital income. Up to 400 extra people were employed by publicans because of the fair.

Judge O'Connor said no statistics had been produced to the court by gardaí. He himself had been to the fair "once or twice" for the whole of the three days. Last year walking the street at about 2.30am "I saw no thuggery", the judge said.

The State was benefiting from the revenue from drinks sales and taxes from the extra employment. It would not be fair to deprive pubs of a "vital hour".

It was totally wrong to say there was no entertainment.People made their own and this including "belting out" songs such as Barr na Sráide, the judge remarked.

Thanks to everyone

I'm immensely gratified that nearly 400 people gave me a vote, the vast majority of whom I have never had the chance to meet. I really appreciate it. The fight goes on, but I think I will take a bit of break from the politicking for a while.

All over bar the shouting

and God knows there will be plenty enough of that.

I would like to thank everyone that voted for me, and those who couldn't vote but who were hugely helpful throughout the process. It has been a long old road since last September but it hasn't been that lonely a journey.

I got some opportunities to raise the issue of the residential charges in the public consciousness and while it may not yet have borne fruit it is something I will persist with. The money been collected is neither needed nor does the logic of applying it to the disabled as if they were the same as the elderly hold up.

I do feel I've been successful to a degree because the issue of extending the franchise has been something that most candidates haven't felt they could ignore. Now that is by no means solely down to my presence in the race (guess I'm showing my main failing as a politician by not claiming complete credit for something I had a mostly tangential involvement with) but even if my being around was responsible for just one or two extra nudges in the right direction then I say it was worthwhile having someone impacted by the ongoing failure to act on this issue in the race.

As to the possible results well, at this stage it ranges from very hard to nigh on impossible to say what the likely outcome might be. We could yet be surprised that the presence of so many entrants will mean a great deal of the valid poll will have just voted their top 2/3 and left it at that. Or maybe that the vote will be incredibly evenly scattered amongst the various candidates or perhaps that the incumbents are abandoned by their electorate and 3 completely new people are installed. I reckon at the absolute limit we might get two new members of the Seanad from the NUI panel but much more likely is that the status quo will remain the same. A pity after all the huffing and puffing from all the little piggies but I guess in this case the 3 little pigs have houses built of the same material - ongoing national press coverage.

I'll have to give Naoise a shout at some point during the day to find out about when it is considered prudent and polite to ask for a recount. After all, his experience in the 2004 battle for Clontarf has to be worth something.

Again, a big thank you to everyone that voted for me, those who just considered it and those for whom the idea of voting for me gave them nightmares. Remember, I could be back.